Asurif s usurif · Asurif s usurif · 7 tsd

Asurif s usurif: tuzzra n Bond

$140 ɣef ufellay, $50 ɣef sin yizirigen 13–18, $10 ɣef yilem: $200 i tuzzya, 25 n wuṭṭunen ttwaṭṭfen. Tuzzra James Bond deg ɛecrin n tuzzyiwin.

Tiririt tawezlant

Taɣimit yettwasimulin n 20 n tuzzyiwin s tuzzra i ttzenzen am tastratijit James Bond. Tnac n yirbaḥen n $80, kraḍ n tuṭṭfiwin n sin yizirigen n $100, yiwen yilem s $160, d ukkuẓ n lexsarat n $200 ɣef 1–12. Ačuran +$620, werǧin texser ugar n $40. Tuzzra teṭṭef qrib sin seg kraḍ n uḍebsi. Mi ara d-yeɣli yiwen seg wuṭṭunen ur nettwaṭṭef ara, rrehn akk n $200 iruḥ.

i tuzzya
$200
yeṭṭef
25 seg 37
p(rrbeḥ)
67,6%
yettwaṛǧan i tuzzya
−$5,41

Aɣawas

Ɣef ṭṭabla tawrupit: $140 ɣef 19–36, $50 ɣef sin yizirigenrrehnSin yizirigenSḍis n wuṭṭunen deg sin yijerriḍen yemyuḍanen, ixelleṣ 5:1. S tefransist: sixain.Ɣer akk → 13–18, $10 ɣef yilemaḍebsiIlemTaxxamt tazegzawt tasuft ur yeṭṭif ula d yiwen n rrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi, n ddzina neɣ n tgejdit; d aɣbalu n lmaziyya n lkazinu. Daɣen: yiwen yilem, 0.Ɣer akk →. Semmus u ɛecrin n wuṭṭunen ttwaṭṭfen. Uṭṭun afellay ixelleṣ $140, yexser $60: +$80. Uṭṭun n sin yizirigen ixelleṣ $250, yexser $150: +$100. Ilem ixelleṣ $350, yexser $190: +$160. Yal uṭṭun seg 1–12 yexser kullec: −$200. Azal yettwaṛǧantusnaktAzal yettwaṛǧanAlemmas n ugmuḍ n yal rrehn deg uɣawas aɣezfan. −1/37 n rrehn i yal rrehn amagnu awrupi.Ɣer akk → i tuzzya d (18×80 + 6×100 + 160 − 12×200)/37 = −$5,41, d 2,70% n $200. Tuzzra d rrehn ur nettbeddil s llebsa n tmeɣra.

Tastratijit n rrehn ur nettbeddil

Tuzzyiwin 1–10

19 27 7 33 15 0 23 31 11 29. Sḍis n yifellayen, yiwen n sin yizirigen, yiwen yilem, snat n lexsarat: +480 +100 +160 −400 = +$340. Lḥisab +$340 deffir mraw n tuzzyiwin, s snat n tuzzyiwin yexsren i yewwin yal yiwet $200. Ilem n tuzzya 6 ixelleṣ $160, d yiwet n tikkelt kan i yettban yilem am umeddakel.

tuzzyauṭṭunagmuḍačuranlḥisab
119afellay+$80+$80
227afellay+$80+$160
371–12−$200−$40
433afellay+$80+$40
515sin yizirigen+$100+$140
60ilem+$160+$300
723afellay+$80+$380
831afellay+$80+$460
9111–12−$200+$260
1029afellay+$80+$340
Tuzzya tis sḍis: takurt tufa-d ilem, ajiṭun n $10 yellan fell-as yerra tuzzya s rrbeḥ n $160.

Tuzzyiwin 11–20

5 22 36 14 20 2 28 34 17 25. Snat n lexsarat deg sḍis n tuzzyiwin timezwura rran lḥisab ɣer +$280; sakin kraḍ n yifellayen d sin yizirigen fukken taɣimit deg +$620. Ɛecrin n tuzzyiwin: 12 n yifellayen, 3 n tuṭṭfiwin n sin yizirigen, 1 n yilem, 4 n lexsarat. Ačuran yettwaṛǧan yella −$108; win n tidet +$620, qrib 1,2 n ubeɛɛed alugantusnaktAbeɛɛed aluganAẓar amkuẓ n tavaryans; ameccaq n umata gar ugmuḍ d wazal yettwaṛǧan.Ɣer akk → nnig wayen yettwaṛǧan, d iḍ yelhan.

Taɣimit-a d tẓa nniḍen am nettatagmuḍ mgal tazwara
+$5 500$0−$2 000+$1 640−$1 0000125250375500tuzzyiwinagmuḍ
1 000 n tɣimiyin × 500 n tuzzyiwin · amidadi p10/p25/p75/p90, anili afsas azal n tlemmast, 82 n yimedyaten ifsasen · sekcmet taɣerdayt deg udlif i yiswiren n yal tuzzya
  • p10 −$2 000
  • p25 −$2 000
  • azal n tlemmast −$2 000
  • p75 −$2 000
  • p90 +$780
1 000 n tɣimiyin × 500 n tuzzyiwin · agellus y yettwagzem ɣer yiswiren 1–99 (seg uzal amecṭuḥ akk −$2 000 ar umeqqran akk +$8 860) · 500 n tuzzyiwin · tazwara $200 · Tuzzra n Bond
Rrehn ur nettbeddil n $200 ɣef 25 n wuṭṭunen: irbaḥen n $80–$160 qrib snat n tuzzyiwin seg kraḍ, lexsarat n $200 yiwet n tuzzya seg kraḍ. Ajerriḍ n ulemmas yettṣubbu s −$5,41 i tuzzya.

Leḥsabat

Amḍan n rrhun meṛṛa $4 000 deg ɛecrin n tuzzyiwin. Lexsara yettwaṛǧantusnaktLexsara yettwaṛǧanAzal yettwaṛǧan seg tmerna n yidrimen yettwarhen; d alemmas n wayen yettwaxsar deg yiwet n tɣimit neɣ deg yiwen wakud.Ɣer akk → $108. Abeɛɛed alugan n yiwet n tuzzya d qrib $135, ihi ɛecrin n tuzzyiwin sɛant abeɛɛed alugan n qrib $605; +$620 neɣ ugar d iḍ yiwen seg tẓa. Ɛecrin-nni n tuzzyiwin s $200 ur nettbeddil ɣef uzeggaɣrrehnAzeggaɣRrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi ɣef 18 n wuṭṭunen izeggaɣen. S tefransist: rouge.Ɣer akk → ad sɛunt yiwen wazal yettwaṛǧan d ubeṭṭu yettwaseɛrḍen ugar (σ ≈ $200 i tuzzya): tuzzra tesɛa tavaryanstusnaktTavaryansAktazal n wamek i d-ttwazzaren igmaḍ i tama n wazal yettwaṛǧan. Meqqret i rrehn ɣef yiwen wuṭṭun, meẓẓiyet i rrhun s lexlaṣ imsawi.Ɣer akk → tamecṭuḥt ugar n rrehn s lexlaṣ imsawirrehnRrehn s lexlaṣ imsawiAzeggaɣ/aberkan, aryan/uyug, afellay/adday. 18 n wuṭṭunen, ixelleṣ 1:1.Ɣer akk → acku tettarbaḥ s waṭas, s wayen amecṭuḥ.

Ayen i d-tesken teɣimit

Tuzzra Bond d kraḍ n rrhun i yesɛan azalen yettwaṛǧan i d-yettaken, mi ara ttwarnun, −1/37 n wayen akk, am yal asemlili n rrhun imagnuten. Taɣara-s n tidet d tuṭṭfa: afmiḍi n rrbeḥ n 67,6% yerra tameddit tettban d anagraw. 32,4% n tuzzyiwin yexsren ttawint $200 yal yiwet, yerna deg uɣawas aɣezfan ttawint akkurad ayen i d-yenna leḥsab. Ɣas akken d isem-is, ulac-it deg wungalen n Fleming: Bond-is yettrehin ɣef snat n ddzinatrrehnDdzina1–12, 13–24 neɣ 25–36, ixelleṣ 2:1.Ɣer akk →. Tiwriqin n tistratijiyin xedment ayen d-yeqqimen.

Rulit deg tseklaTastratijit n ddzinat d tgejda

Isteqsiyen

Tuzzra teteddu ugar s la partage?

Rrehn afellay d lexlaṣ imsawi, ihi ɣef ṭṭabla tafransist yettxesser kan $70 ɣef yilem deg umkan n $140, yerna ilem yettak +$230 deg umkan n +$160. Lmaziyya yemxelḍen qrib 1,8%. Ifaz, maca yeqqim ddaw n yilem.

Ayɣer $140, $50, $10?

Ifmiḍiyen-a ssemsawayen qrib irbaḥen: $80, $100, $160. Yal afmiḍi yettak yiwet n lmaziyya.

D rrehn ur nettbeddil?

Ih. Tettrehinem $200 ɣef 25-nni n wuṭṭunen deg yal tuzzya. Ula d azal ula d afran ur ttbeddilen ara deffir rrbeḥ neɣ lexsara.

Taḍsa i usgunfu

Sin seg kraḍ n uḍebsi. Yiwet seg kraḍ n tikkal, kullec iruḥ.

Sin seg kraḍ n uḍebsi. Yiwet seg kraḍ n tikkal, kullec iruḥ.

Iɣbula

  1. Fleming, I. Casino Royale. Jonathan Cape, 1953. Ixef 7: Bond yettrehin ɣef snat n ddzinat, mačči ɣef tuzzra-a.
  2. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Ixef 13, rulit.
yettwasenqed 2026-09-28tamudemt: tawrupit, yiwen yilemtarrayt ↗iɣbula ↗