Azal adaddan
«Adaddan» yebɣa ad yini ur yettili ara s waṭas ɣef uḍebsi imsawi, mačči «d tidet», mačči «yettak rrbeḥ».
Azal p n 0,05 yebɣa ad yini belli aḍebsi imsawi ad d-yefk tamudemt yemxalafen akka yiwet n tikkelt seg ɛecrin. Ma twalam ɛecrin n yiḍebsiyen, yiwen ad yeɛddi s tegnit.
D acu i d azal p
TaprubabilittusnaktTaprubabilitAzal n yiwen ugmuḍ ad d-yeḍru, seg 0 ɣer 1 neɣ seg 0% ɣer 100%. Yiwen wuṭṭun: 1/37 = 2,70%.Ɣer akk → ad twalim abeɛɛed seg wayen yettwaṛǧan meqqren ma drus am win yettwalan, ma yella uḍebsi imsawi. D awal ɣef yisefka ddaw n yiwet n tadabit, mačči ɣef uḍebsi. Azal ptanaritAzal pTaprubabilit n wannar n yiwen umeẓlay ameqqran am win yettwaẓren neɣ ugar ma yella uḍebsi imsawi.Ɣer akk → n 0,03 yeqqar-d: aḍebsi imsawi yexeddem aya 3% n tikkal. Ur d-yeqqar ara: yella 97% n tprubabilit belli aḍebsi yesɛa amyal. Awal wis sin ad yesri ad yeẓer acḥal i llan yiḍebsiyen s umyaltanaritAḍebsi s umyalAḍebsi i deg ara xedmen yixeṣṣaṣen-is n lǧessa kra n texxamin ad d-ffɣent ugar n 1/37. D ayen yettwaxeṣṣren, ur yettwaf ara ala s yigiman n tuzzyiwin yettwarun.Ɣer akk → seg tazwara, u deg lkazinu n tura d tidrit aṭas, ayen yettaǧǧan agmuḍ adaddan yiwen yettili d tagnit ugar n wayen yettili d tifin.
Aserwes aṭas n tikkal
Yal akayad i txeddmem ɣef uḍebsi imsawi yesɛa 5% n tprubabilit ad yeɛddi s uswir n 5%. Sekydet ɛecrin n yiḍebsiyen u yiwen ad yeɛddi. Sekydet yiwen n uḍebsi deg ɛecrin n yisfuyla n wakud u yiwen ad yeɛddi. Sekydet yiwet n tegrumma s 37 n yisdukkal n texxaminibenkanTaxxamtYiwet seg 37 n texxamin s wuṭṭunen ɣef uqerru yettezzin. Daɣen: slot, cup.Ɣer akk →, sḍis n yisdukkal n tigezminaḍebsiTagzemtAḥric n texxamin yemmeḍfaren ɣef uḍebsi, mačči d tagrumma ɣef tfelwit.Ɣer akk → d kraḍ n yisdukkal n yiniten, u kra ad yeɛddi. Asafar d asbadu n ukayad send tamuɣli ɣer yisefka, aselkem-is yiwet n tikkelt, d usentem ɣef yisefka imaynuten. Anadi i d-yettafen aḍebsi «s umyal» s umata d netta i d-yefkan agmuḍ.
Azal adaddan mgal tiddi
Tagrumma tameqqrant aṭas tezmer ad terr amyal amecṭuḥ d adaddan. Taxxamt i yeɣlin s 1/36,5 deg wadeg n 1/37 d lɛib n tidet i ara yawḍen azal adaddan deg kra n yimelyunen n tuzzyiwin, u ad txessar ɣas akken idrimen s lexlaṣidrimenLexlaṣAyen i d-yettak rrehn i yerbḥen, yettwanna «X ɣef 1» nnig rrehn i d-yettuɣalen.Ɣer akk → n 35 ɣef 1. Ayen yesɛan azal i umurar d tiddi n umyal: yella texxamt i yeɣlin s 1/36 neɣ ugar, u s wacḥal? Chi-square yeqqar-awen-d ɣef uḍebsi; d afmiḍi n uɣelli kan i yeqqaren ɣef rrehn.
Tazmert
Tuccḍa nniḍen d asruḥ n umyal yellan. S 1 000 n tuzzyiwin, taxxamt s 1/30 (amyal meqqren aṭas) tettwaf azal n uzgen n tikkal kan s uswir n 5%. D tiddi n tegrumma, mačči d tiḥerci, i yesseɣtayen aya. Asebter n tiddi n tegrumma yettak-d imḍanen.
Alugen n tilawt
Akken ad yesɛu azal win yeqqaren yella umyal: akayad yettwafernen uqbel, p < 0,01 deg wadeg n 0,05, aɛiwed ɣef tegrumma tamanayt n tiddi yecban tin, d ufmiḍi n uɣelli yettwaḥesben ɣef texxamin yettwafernen n 1/34 neɣ ugar deffir uɛiwed. Alugen-a yettwawweḍ kra n tikkal kan deg umezruy n wurar u werǧin, akken i d-sskanen yiseklasen i yettwasuffɣen, ɣef uḍebsi n tura yettwaḥerzen.
Isteqsiyen
Lɛada seg yiseggasen n 1920. Ulac acemma yemgaraden deg-s; 0,01 d talast yesɛan lmeɛna ugar mi ara tettnadim deg waṭas n yiḍebsiyen.
Ahat ur d-yettak ara igmaḍ yemsawan. Yezmer ad yili d ayen i d-yeglan seg ukrupi, d tuccḍa n tira neɣ d ugur n usekcem n yisefka. Ɛiwdet.
Ala. Yeqqar-awen-d belli abeṭṭu ur yeṣḥi ara. Tasleḍt n tigezmin d tiddi n umyal i d-yeqqaren anda.
Urar s tusnakt
Ɛerḍet-tent s yiman-nwen qbel. Yal tifrat tettwaffer; ldit-tt mi ara tilim twejdem.
Deg uḍebsi s sin yilmawenaḍebsiIlemTaxxamt tazegzawt tasuft ur yeṭṭif ula d yiwen n rrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi, n ddzina neɣ n tgejdit; d aɣbalu n lmaziyya n lkazinu. Daɣen: yiwen yilem, 0.Ɣer akk → yettwammlen, ddzinarrehnDdzina1–12, 13–24 neɣ 25–36, ixelleṣ 2:1.Ɣer akk → tamezwarut teffeɣ-d 742 n tikkal deg 3 000 n tuzzyiwin. Acḥal n ubeɛɛed alugantusnaktAbeɛɛed aluganAẓar amkuẓ n tavaryans; ameccaq n umata gar ugmuḍ d wazal yettwaṛǧan.Ɣer akk → ddaw walemmas i d aya, d acḥal n tikkal ara t-yexdem uḍebsi imsawi?
Sken-d tifrat
Tiririt Qrib 8,1 n ubeɛɛed alugan ddaw. Aḍebsi imsawi ad t-yexdem qrib yiwet n tikkelt deg 3 × 10¹⁵ n yiɛraḍen, d werǧin. Tiririt yettwasuffɣen d usteqsi tenna 11,75; nekni nufa-d 8,07.
Ddzina tamezwarut tesɛa 12 seg 38 n texxaminibenkanTaxxamtYiwet seg 37 n texxamin s wuṭṭunen ɣef uqerru yettezzin. Daɣen: slot, cup.Ɣer akk →. Deg 3 000 n tuzzyiwin, s ulemmas d 3 000 × 12/38 = 947,4 n tuɣliwin, s uzerreɛ n √(3 000 × 12/38 × 26/38) = 25,5.
742 yella 205,4 ddaw walemmas: 205,4/25,5 = 8,07 n uzerreɛ.
Aḍebsi imsawi yeqqim kraḍ n uzerreɛ ddaw qrib yiwet n tikkelt deg 740 n yiɛraḍen; tam n uzerreɛ ddaw, qrib yiwet n tikkelt deg 3 × 10¹⁵ (taznagt n uqelwac, yiwet n tama). Ma nḥesb belli umeɣri yefṛez tin n diri seg kraḍ n ddzinat, ur ibeddel acemma n wazal. Agmuḍ am wa yenna-d belli aḍebsi, neɣ leḥsab, ur iṣeḥḥ ara. Ɣef uḍebsi s yiwen yilem, amḍan-nni yili d 9,0 n uzerreɛ ddaw (alemmas 973,0, azerreɛ 25,6).
Taḍsa i usgunfu
Yiwen seg ɛecrin n yiḍebsiyen imsawiyen d «adaddan». D aya i d-yebɣa ad yini wuṭṭun.
Iɣbula
- Pearson, K. “On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable…”
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Wizard of Odds. “Ask the Wizard”, isteqsiyen ɣef rulit.