Amezruy n yinagrawen n rulit

Martingale

Isem-is d-yekka seg wawal n lqmer n Provence (à la martegalo, «am yimdanen n Martigues», yettwassnen deg yinzan ur ttḥadaren ara) i rrehn yettuslegten, yettwaru deg yimawalen n tefransist seg yiseggasen 1760. Thorp (1984), deffir American Heritage Dictionary, yefka-d asegzi wis sin seg yimeslayen n leɣṛuc: imdanen n Martigues ttwaḍesṣen ɣef tannumiwin-nsen tiwhimin, gar-asent tuqqna n yiserwal-nsen seg deffir, ihi tanfalit-a tuɣal tbeggen «s ubrid n taḍsa». Tella yakan d taqsiḍt n uḥader deg Paris n tasut wis 18: Casanova yeglem-d amek yexser ayla meqqren s usleg deg faro deg Venezia deg yiseggasen 1750. Tusnakt i d-yesfehmen acuɣer ur teddu ara, talast n ṭṭablaṭṭablaTalast n ṭṭablaRrehn adday d rrehn afellay i yettwasirgen. Talast tafellayt d ayen i yeḥebsen inagrawen n usnegmu.Ɣer akk → d ugerrujidrimenAgerrujAkk idrimen yettwaǧǧan i wurar. Asefrek n ugerruj d tagrut: acḥal seg-s ara tesrem i yal rrehn d yal taɣimit.Ɣer akk → yesɛan taggara, tettwafhem send iseggasen 1770. Deg tiẓri n teprubabilittusnaktTaprubabilitAzal n yiwen ugmuḍ ad d-yeḍru, seg 0 ɣer 1 neɣ seg 0% ɣer 100%. Yiwen wuṭṭun: 1/37 = 2,70%.Ɣer akk →, «martingaletastratijitMartingaleAnagraw n usnerni i yessneggmen rrehn deffir yal lexsara. Walit taggayt n tstratijit i wayen i yettxemmem d wayen ur yettxemmim ara.Ɣer akk →» yuɣal d awal ateknikan deg yiseggasen 1930 i wurar n lḥeqqtusnaktUrar n lḥeqqUrar anda ulac win ɣur-s lmaziyya: yal rrehn azal-is yettwaṛǧan d ilem.Ɣer akk →, d ayen kan ur nelli ara Martingale n rulit.

Tilisa n ṭṭabla n rulit

D’Alembert

Jean le Rond d’Alembert yenna-d deg Encyclopédie (1754) belli deffir uzrar n wudmawen, tama nniḍen tettuɣal tesɛa taprubabilit meqqren ugar: d yiwen seg yinawen imezwura n tuccḍa n umqemmer s yiwen umussnaw meqqren n tusnakt. Anagraw n rrehn i yettrennun yiwen uferdisidrimenAferdisRrehn agejdan s wacu i yettxeddem unagraw neɣ amurar. Inagrawen n usnerni ttwaglamen s yiferdisen akken ad ilin i yal ṭṭabla.Ɣer akk → deffir lexsara, ikkes yiwen deffir rrbeḥ, yettwasemma s yisem-is sɣur imqemmren i d-yusan deffir-s, i yumnen s wayen-nni. Ur t-id-yessumer ara, yerna deg wussan-is yelhan, tili ad t-yugi.

Tastratijit D'Alembert

Labouchère

Henry LabouchèretastratijitLabouchèreAnagraw n tukksa: aru ajerriḍ n wuṭṭunen, rhen s tmerna n sin yixfawen, kkes-iten deffir rrbeḥ, rnu adrim yexsren deffir lexsara.Ɣer akk → (1831–1912), amaru n yiɣmisen, bab n umezgun d anayab Aliberali, yerra anagraw n usefsex d win yettwassnen deg tmetti n London deg yiseggasen 1870, qqaren yesseqdac-it deg Monte Carlo. Tarrayt-a (tira n ujerriḍ n wuṭṭunen d rrehn ɣef umatu n yixfawen-is) tella uqbel-is. Isem-is yeqqim yeqqen ɣer-s imi yettwassen ɣef wayen nniḍen, yerna imi anagraw-a ɣur-s yiwet n tɣara ur nettili ara s waṭas: yeddu s waṭas, ihi yuɣal d asentel n umeslay deg yimensi.

Rulit n Monte CarloTastratijit Labouchère

Tasut wis 20

FibonaccitastratijitFibonacciAnagraw n usnerni i yeḍfaren umuɣ 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…: yiwen usurif ɣer zdat deffir lexsara, sin ɣer deffir deffir rrbeḥ.Ɣer akk → d ParolitastratijitParoliAsnerni deffir rrbeḥ: snegmu deffir rrbeḥ, wennez deffir lexsara neɣ deffir kraḍ n rrbeḥ yemmeḍfaren. Daɣen: Martingale tamettiwt.Ɣer akk → kecmen idlisen n lqmer ɣer 1900. Tlemmast n tasut tewwi-d inagrawen yettwazenzen s lbusṭa, yal yiwen s wawal n yiwen n umdan i yeqqaren yerbeḥ d lḍemma n tuɣalin n yedrimen, akked tisimulasyunin timezwura s uselkim, i d-yeskanen ayen i d-tenna yakan tusnakt. Abeggen belli ulac anagraw ara yeddun yella yakan: Joseph Doob (1936) d Paul Halmos (1939) sbeggnen belli ulac alugen n ufran n melmi d acḥal ara yerhen yiwen ara ibeddlen agmuḍ yettwaṛǧan n wurar n lḥeqq neɣ n wurar ur nelhi, yerna tasleḍt n Thorp n 1969 tessegzi tiwtilin s talɣa ideg i tent-ttemlilen yimqemmren. Seg wass-nni, inagrawen ur beddlen ara; d adellel kan i iɛeddan seg yiferrawen ɣer tvidyutin.

Lexrafa: tastratijit n rulit i yettrebḥen yal tikkeltTastratijit Fibonacci

Acuɣer mazal-iten

Anagraw yettak i umurar ayen ara yexdem d taqsiḍt ara d-yini. Ddaw tuget n yinagrawen, tuget n tɣimiyin fukkunt s rrbeḥ amecṭuḥ, d taqsiḍt yifen leḥsab. Tiɣimiyin n lexsara drus i llant, yettwacfa fell-asent am zzher n diri. Adellel ur yeḥwaǧ ara ad yeskiddeb ɣef wassaɣ; yeḥwaǧ kan ad d-yesken taɣimit n rrbeḥ, yerna llant aṭas. Abeggen mgal-as, 2,70% n umḍan n rrhun meṛṛaidrimenAmḍan n rrhun meṛṛaTamerna n yidrimen yettwarhen deg yiwet n tɣimit neɣ deg yiwen wakud, s rrbeḥ i yettuɣalen yettwarhen. Daɣen: handle, action.Ɣer akk →, yella seg 1843, yerna werǧin yesɛa tazmert am yiḍ n zzher.

Inagrawen i uznuzu

Tasut wis 20 terna-d tiḥilin-is, yal yiwet d asuddes amaynut n rrhun-nni yakan s wazal yettwaṛǧan ddaw n yilem. Phase One yettwazenz s $25 d 10% n rrbeḥ n win i t-yuɣen, s Phase Two yettwaɛhed mi ara d-yettwaxelleṣ $500 d «Inner Circle» s $5 000. Ula d yiwen seg-sen ur ibeddel leḥsab: azal yettwaṛǧantusnaktAzal yettwaṛǧanAlemmas n ugmuḍ n yal rrehn deg uɣawas aɣezfan. −1/37 n rrehn i yal rrehn amagnu awrupi.Ɣer akk → n waṭas n rrhun d amatu n yizalen-nsen yettwaṛǧan.

Win ur nelli d anagraw

Ilugan n uḥbas: ad yefren umurar uqbel acḥal ara yexser neɣ ara yerbeḥ, syin ad iṛuḥ. S waṭas ttwazenzen d aḥric n unagraw, yerna d aḥric kan i yesɛan lfayda, imi ssenqasen amḍan n rrhun meṛṛa. Ulac isem n umdan i ten-yeṭṭfen, d ayen yelhan.

Isteqsiyen