Tanarit n rulit · Tanarit · Tidaddanin · 8 tsd

Akayad χ² (chi-square)

Akayad amagnu i usteqsi «37 n yisiḍen-a d wid ara d-yefk uḍebsi imsawi?»

Tiririt tawezlant

χ² = Σ (ayen yettwalan − ayen yettwaṛǧan)² / ayen yettwaṛǧan ɣef 37 n texxamin meṛṛa. Serwset-it d ubeṭṭu n chi-square s 36 n tfesniwin n tlelli akken ad d-tafem azal p.

azal n ukayad
Σ (O−E)²/E
df
36
talast s 5%
51,0
talast s 1%
58,6

Asiḍen-is

Asiḍen yettwaṛǧan i yal taxxamtibenkanTaxxamtYiwet seg 37 n texxamin s wuṭṭunen ɣef uqerru yettezzin. Daɣen: slot, cup.Ɣer akk → d n/37. I yal taxxamt, sbeddet amgired gar wayen yettwalan d wayen yettwaṛǧan s umkuẓ u bḍut-t ɣef wayen yettwaṛǧan; rnut 37 n yimuren. Aḍebsi imsawi yettak azalen n wazal n 36 s ulemmas (tifesniwin n tlellitanaritTifesniwin n tlelliAmḍan n yizalen imanayen deg yiwen usiḍen adaddan. I wakayad χ² ɣef 37 n texxamin d 36, acku imiḍanen ilaq ad msawin d tmerna.Ɣer akk →), s ubeɛɛed alugan (SD)tusnaktAbeɛɛed aluganAẓar amkuẓ n tavaryans; ameccaq n umata gar ugmuḍ d wazal yettwaṛǧan.Ɣer akk → n wazal n 8,5. Sennig n 51,0 d adaddan s uswir n 5%; sennig n 58,6 s 1%. Amesleḍ n umyal n uḍebsi yessiḍin azal n ukayad d wazal ptanaritAzal pTaprubabilit n wannar n yiwen umeẓlay ameqqran am win yettwaẓren neɣ ugar ma yella uḍebsi imsawi.Ɣer akk → uṣlib seg twuri gamma ur nemmid ara yettwasnemhel.

n n tuzzyiwinyettwaṛǧan i yal taxxamtσ i yal taxxamttaxxamt s +2σtaxxamt s +3σ
370103,11619
1 000275,13742
3 7001009,9120130
10 00027016,2303319
37 0001 00031,21 0621 094
σ ≈ √(n·p·(1−p)) s p = 1/37. Deg 1 000 n tuzzyiwin, taxxamt s 37 n tikkal ur d-tenni acemma; tin s 42 tesɛa azal n tegrumma tis snat.

Amedya yettwaxedmen

1 000 n tuzzyiwin. Sḍis u tlatin n texxamin ɣlint gar 20 d 34 n tikkal; taxxamt 8 teɣli 41 n tikkal. Ayen yettwaṛǧan d 27,03. Amur n texxamt 8 iman-is d (41 − 27,03)²/27,03 = 7,2. Ad nini belli 36 n yimuren nniḍen sdukklen 38 (d amagnu). χ² = 45,2 s 36 df, p ≈ 0,14. Mačči d adaddan: aḍebsi imsawi yexeddem aya yiwet n tikkelt seg sa. Taxxamt 8 d tin ara yettwaɛassen, mačči d tifin, u tiririt d agim nniḍen n tuzzyiwin.

Tidabiyin

Tuzzyiwin timanayintusnaktTuzzyiwin timanayinYal tuzzya ɣur-s tiprubabiliyin kif kif, ama d acu i d-yeffɣen yakan. D tagejdit n yal asiḍen deg usmel-a.Ɣer akk →, d yisiḍen yettwaṛǧan n ma drus 5 i yal taxxamt, ayen yebɣan n ≥ 185 akken akayad ad yeṣḥu kan, u ugar aṭas akken ad yenfeɛ. Asdukkel n tuzzyiwin n waṭas n yiḍebsiyen yerẓa tadabit tamezwarut s lmeɛna (tsekyadem taxlaḍt, mačči aḍebsi). Tazmamt n ukrupi ad tt-terẓ s tidet, u ad tessali χ² war ma tella texxamt yettwafernen s tfizikt.

Tazmamt n ukrupiTuzzyiwin timanayin n rulit

Pearson d Monte Carlo

Karl Pearson yessuffeɣ akayad deg 1900, u yiwen seg yimedyaten-is imezwura d 26 306 n tuzzyiwin n rulit n Monte Carlo yettwarun, i yufa ur nemsawa ara aṭas akken ad tent-id-tawi tegnit, u yenna belli «rulit n Monte Carlo… mačči d urar n zzher». Imaruyen i d-yusan deffir-s ufan belli inaɣmasen i yuran tuzzyiwin i yiwet n teɣmist snulfan-d aṭas seg-sent, d tamsirt s yiman-is ɣef laṣel n yisefka.

Akayad d uḍebsi
1900

Pearson yessuffeɣ akayad chi-square n umṣada, s tuzzyiwin n Monte Carlo d amedya.

iseggasen n 1900

Isefka n tuzzyiwin ttwaḥsben d ccekk; yettban belli wid i ten-yuran snulfan-d izrar.

iseggasen n 1920

Fisher yessebded tifesniwin n tlelli; lɛada n 5% teṭṭef.

iseggasen n 1940–50

Imussnawen n tidaddanin sseqdacen tuzzyiwin n rulit d isefka n yidlisen i yikayaden n umsawi.

iseggasen n 1990

Tawacult García-Pelayo tesseqdac tarrayt s yisefka n tidet yettwarun u terbeḥ deg Madrid.

ass-a

Lkazinu sselkament yiwen n ukayad ɣef yiḍebsiyen-nsent am uḥraz n yal ass.

Akayad n Pearson n 1900 yufa tuzzyiwin n Monte Carlo ur msawant ara aṭas; wid yuran i teɣmist snulfan-d aṭas seg-sent.

Rulit n Monte Carlo

Akayad n tidet: iḍebsiyen iwurmanen deg Las Vegas

Imuraren s waṭas ttwalin belli aḍebsi awurman yessbeɛɛad takurtibenkanTakurtTakurt tamecṭuḥt i yettwaḍeqqren deg ubrid mgal aqerru yettezzin. Tikurin n tura d ivorine neɣ d Teflon, 18–21 mm.Ɣer akk → seg rrhun imeqqranen. Tasleḍt n 2017 tesekyed ccekk-a ɣef yiḍebsiyen n Interblock war akrupi s sin yilmawenaḍebsiIlemTaxxamt tazegzawt tasuft ur yeṭṭif ula d yiwen n rrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi, n ddzina neɣ n tgejdit; d aɣbalu n lmaziyya n lkazinu. Daɣen: yiwen yilem, 0.Ɣer akk → deg Las Vegas, s rrehn ɣef tegzemt n semmus n wuṭṭunen yemlalen, d anaw n rrehn i yexeddem win yettaktazalen aḍebsi. Deg 299 n tuzzyiwin, tagzemt terbeḥ 29 n tikkal mgal 39,3 yettwaṛǧan, d axuṣṣ i d-yettak uḍebsi imsawi azal n 4% n tikkal. Chi-square ɣef 38 n texxamin meṛṛa d 45,29 s 37 n tfesniwin n tlelli: p = 16,5%. Tagrumma tis snat n 1 204 n tuzzyiwin ɣef kraḍ n yiḍebsiyen tefka-d χ² = 34,79, p = 57%, u ula d yiwet n tegzemt n yal tiddi yettwasekyden ur tella d tadaddant. Snat n tegrummiwin akk, 1 503 n tuzzyiwin, fkant-d χ² = 41,75, p = 27%. Agmuḍ: ulac abeggen belli aḍebsi yettḥakam deg tkurt. Tagrumma tamezwarut iman-is tettban-d d tin yesɛan ccekk; d tis snat i yefran.

tagrummatuzzyiwinχ²dfp
tamezwarut29945,293716,5%
tis snat, kraḍ n yiḍebsiyen1 20434,793757%
snat-nsent1 50341,753727%
Imḍanen d-kkan-d seg tesleḍt-nni n 2017; yal azal p d-yekka-d seg χ²-ines. Aḍebsi s sin yilmawen yesɛa 38 n texxamin, ihi 37 n tfesniwin n tlelli.

Beṛṛa n chi-square

I yiwet n texxamt yesɛan ccekk, akayad abinumyal yeǧhed ugar. I tegzemt yesɛan ccekk, akayad z n tegzemtaḍebsiTagzemtAḥric n texxamin yemmeḍfaren ɣef uḍebsi, mačči d tagrumma ɣef tfelwit.Ɣer akk → deg usebter n tesleḍt n tigezmin. Chi-square d akayad amatu: yeqqar-awen-d belli yella kra ur yeṣḥin ara war ma yenna-d d acu. Sseqdacet-it d amezwaru, syin walit.

Tasleḍt n tigezmin

Tasemselt

χ² = Σᵢ (Oᵢ − Eᵢ)² / Eᵢ
Eᵢ = n / 37 · df = 36
azalen n talast: 51,0 (5%) · 58,6 (1%)

Isteqsiyen

Acuɣer 36 n tfesniwin n tlelli mačči 37?

37 n yisiḍen ilaq ad sdukklen n, ihi 36 kan i yezmren ad beddlen s tlelli.

Acu n χ² ara d-yesken uḍebsi s umyal meqqren?

Aḍebsi s yiwet n texxamt s 1/25 deg 10 000 n tuzzyiwin ad d-yefk amur n texxamt n wazal n 60 iman-is; χ² azal n 100, p qrib d ilem.

Zemreɣ ad t-selkmeɣ ɣef 200 n tuzzyiwin?

Ih, s tiẓri, s 5,4 yettwaṛǧan i yal taxxamt. Ur d-yettaf acemma ma mačči d aḍebsi s texxamt yettwamedlen s ulṣaq.

Taḍsa i usgunfu

Sdukklet imkuẓen n wayen ur nettwaṛǧa ara. Serwset-tent d 51,0.

Sdukklet imkuẓen n wayen ur nettwaṛǧa ara. Serwset-tent d 51,0.

Iɣbula

  1. Pearson, K. “On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable…” Philosophical Magazine 50(302), 1900.
  2. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, taẓrigt tis 3, 1968. Aɣelluy n umqemmer, ixef XIV.
  3. Wizard of Odds. “Organic Roulette Experiment.” Meɣres 2017; yettwaleqqem ass n 3 ɣuct 2026.
yettwasenqed 2026-09-28tamudemt: tawrupit, yiwen yilemtarrayt ↗iɣbula ↗