Asurif s usurif: alluy Fibonacci
Rrhun n 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13 ɣef uberkanrrehnAberkanRrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi ɣef 18 n wuṭṭunen iberkanen. S tefransist: noir.Ɣer akk →, tuɣalin s snat n tikliwin ɣer deffir deffir rrbeḥ. Martingale s ttawil ugar, d wamek i d-yettas uɣelluy-is.
Taɣimit Fibonacci yettwasimulin n 90 n tuzzyiwin s $5 i uferdis. Ɛecrin n tunnḍiwin fukkent s $5 yal yiwet, yiwen wazrar n diri alamma d aswir wis tẓa (rrehn n $170) i yeǧǧan taɣimit s lexsara n $340. Yeḥnin ugar n usnerni s sin alamma yuɣal ur yeḥnin ara.
Ḍfer amyizwer
Lexsara tesseddu yiwet n tseddart ɣer yeffus. Rrbeḥ yessuɣal snat n tseddarin ɣer deffir.
Rrhun d yigmaḍ s yiferdisen n rrehn n tazwara.
Aɣawas
Rhent amḍan amezwaru n FibonaccitastratijitFibonacciAnagraw n usnerni i yeḍfaren umuɣ 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…: yiwen usurif ɣer zdat deffir lexsara, sin ɣer deffir deffir rrbeḥ.Ɣer akk →, $5. Deffir lexsara, ddut yiwet n tikli ɣer uyeffus deg wazrar. Deffir rrbeḥ, ddut snat n tikliwin ɣer uzelmaḍ. Tunnḍa tfukk mi ara nuɣal ɣer tazwara s yiwen uferdisidrimenAferdisRrehn agejdan s wacu i yettxeddem unagraw neɣ amurar. Inagrawen n usnerni ttwaglamen s yiferdisen akken ad ilin i yal ṭṭabla.Ɣer akk → n rrbeḥ. Ma nserwes-it d MartingaletastratijitMartingaleAnagraw n usnerni i yessneggmen rrehn deffir yal lexsara. Walit taggayt n tstratijit i wayen i yettxemmem d wayen ur yettxemmim ara.Ɣer akk →, adrim n rrehn yettnerni s ×1,6 deg umkan n ×2, ihi aɣelluy yebɛed ugar, tuɣalin tettaẓay ugar: rrbeḥ ur yessekfay ara tunnḍa, yerra-tt kan ɣer deffir.
Tuzzyiwin 1–40
Ḥdac n tunnḍiwin fukkent, tin yeṭṭulen akk tewweḍ ɣer uswir wis semmus ($25). Yal tunnḍa yekfan terbeḥ $5 kan; leḥsab yelha, rrhun qqimen d imecṭaḥ. Ačuran +$55. Yettban am Martingale war tugdi.
Tuzzyiwin 41–70
Semmus n tunnḍiwin nniḍen fukkent alamma d tuzzya 60 (+$25). Sakin tunnḍa ur nfukk ara. X X X X X X X R X X: rrhun 5, 5, 10, 15, 25, 40, 65 (sebɛa n lexsarat, −$165), rrbeḥ s $105 (+$105, snat n tikliwin ɣer deffir ɣer $40), sakin snat n lexsarat s $40 d $65. Tura nella deg uswir wis tam, $105, s −$165 deg tunnḍa, yerna lexsara d-iteddun ad aɣ-tazen ɣer $170 mgal talast n ṭṭablaṭṭablaTalast n ṭṭablaRrehn adday d rrehn afellay i yettwasirgen. Talast tafellayt d ayen i yeḥebsen inagrawen n usnegmu.Ɣer akk → n $200. Ačuran i tallit-a −$140.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- azal n tlemmast −$500
- p75 +$390
- p90 +$480
Tuzzyiwin 71–90
X X: $105 sakin $170 xesren, tunnḍa tella deg −$440. Rrehn d-iteddun ad yili $275, ugar n talast, ihi deg tuzzya 72 neǧǧa tunnḍa nebda seg $5. D wagi i d aɣelluy. Tmenṭac n tuzzyiwin i d-yeqqimen fukkent ukkuẓ n tunnḍiwin nniḍen. Aneggaru −$340; aswir adday akk n ugerrujidrimenAgerrujAkk idrimen yettwaǧǧan i wurar. Asefrek n ugerruj d tagrut: acḥal seg-s ara tesrem i yal rrehn d yal taɣimit.Ɣer akk → yella −$360.
Leḥsabat
Amḍan n rrhun meṛṛa qrib $1 200 mgal $450 s rrehn ur nettbeddil. Lexsara yettwaṛǧantusnaktLexsara yettwaṛǧanAzal yettwaṛǧan seg tmerna n yidrimen yettwarhen; d alemmas n wayen yettwaxsar deg yiwet n tɣimit neɣ deg yiwen wakud.Ɣer akk → ɣef $1 200 d $32; tin n tidet −$340 tella qrib yiwen u azgen n ubeɛɛed alugantusnaktAbeɛɛed aluganAẓar amkuẓ n tavaryans; ameccaq n umata gar ugmuḍ d wazal yettwaṛǧan.Ɣer akk → ddaw, d taɣimit n diri, d tawsit n teɣimit i d-tettak Fibonacci qrib yiwet n tikkelt seg semmus s teɣzi-a. Tunnḍiwin yekfan xellṣent $5 yal yiwet; tunnḍa n diri tkellef tmanya u tmanin seg-sent.
Ayen i d-tesken teɣimit
Fibonacci tbeṭṭu aɣelluy n Martingale ɣef waṭas n tuzzyiwin, tessebɛad-it ugar, ayen i tt-yerran ɣas teɛqel ugar, teskiddib ugar: azrar n rrhun yettban-d yeṣḥa alamma d win ur nṣeḥḥa ara. Lexsara yettwaṛǧan i yal adular ur tbeddel ara; amḍan n rrhun meṛṛaidrimenAmḍan n rrhun meṛṛaTamerna n yidrimen yettwarhen deg yiwet n tɣimit neɣ deg yiwen wakud, s rrbeḥ i yettuɣalen yettwarhen. Daɣen: handle, action.Ɣer akk → amernan seg usali d anida i tteddun yedrimen.
Isteqsiyen
Acku rrbeḥ deg uswir n yerra-d lexsarat n yiswiren n−1 d n−2, i d-yettaken azal-is mi ara ttwarnunt. Azrar yettwabna i ulugen-a.
Rrehn ameqqran akk d adday i yiwen n umḍan n lexsarat, ihi ih, deg unamek n uɣelluy i d-yettasen ɣer taggara. Azal yettwaṛǧan d yiwen.
Wis tnac s uferdis n $5: 5, 5, 10, 15, 25, 40, 65, 105, 170, 275, 445, sakin 720.
Taḍsa i usgunfu
Assaɣ n wureɣ d 1,618. Lmaziyya n lkazinu teqqim d 2,70%.
Iɣbula
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.