Asurif s usurif · Asurif s usurif · 6 tsd

Asurif s usurif: 1-3-2-6

Rrhun n 1, 3, 2 d 6 n yiferdisen deffir yal rrbeḥ yeṭṭafaren, tuɣalin ɣer 1 deffir yal lexsara. Azrar n rrhun n usnernitastratijitAnagraw n usnerniYal alugen i yettbeddilen rrehn ɣef leḥsab n yigmaḍ yezrin. Asnerni deffir lexsara yessali-t deffir lexsara, asnerni deffir rrbeḥ deffir rrbeḥ.Ɣer akk → deffir rrbeḥ, tuzzya s tuzzya.

Tiririt tawezlant

Taɣimit 1-3-2-6 yettwasimulin n 60 n tuzzyiwin, $10 i uferdis ɣef uzeggaɣrrehnAzeggaɣRrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi ɣef 18 n wuṭṭunen izeggaɣen. S tefransist: rouge.Ɣer akk →. Tlata u tlatin n yineɛruḍen: seṭṭac zrin aswir amezwaru, sebɛa zrin wis sin, sin kemmlen s +$120 yal yiwen. Agmuḍ ačuran −$50 deffir mi tella +$80. D Paroli s usgunfu yellan zik deg-s.

aferdis

$10 ɣef uzeggaɣ

amyizwer

1 → 3 → 2 → 6

p(tummidt)

5,6%

ačuran ma tekmel

+$120

Ḍfer anagraw

Rrbeḥ yesseddu yiwet n tseddart ɣer zdat. Lexsara, neɣ rrbeḥ wis ukkuẓ, yettuɣal ɣer tazwara.

rrehn d-iteddun1agmuḍ ar tura0tuzzyiwin0

Rrhun d yigmaḍ s yiferdisen n rrehn n tazwara.

Aɣawas

Rhent 1 n uferdisidrimenAferdisRrehn agejdan s wacu i yettxeddem unagraw neɣ amurar. Inagrawen n usnerni ttwaglamen s yiferdisen akken ad ilin i yal ṭṭabla.Ɣer akk →. Ma yerbeḥ, rhent 3 (2 yellan tura ɣef ṭṭabla d 1 nniḍen seg wayla-nneɣ). Ma yerbeḥ tikkelt tis snat, rhent 2, ḥerzet ayen d-yeqqimen. Ma yerbeḥ tikkelt tis kraḍ, rhent 6. Rrbeḥ wis ukkuẓ ad yekmel azrar s +12 n yiferdisen; yal lexsara tettuɣal ɣer 1. Azrar yettwaheyya akken lexsara deg uswir wis sin ad tkellef 2 n yiferdisen ačuran, deg uswir wis kraḍ ad aɣ-teǧǧ daɣen +2 (nella +4 deffir uswir wis sin, nɣamer s 2), deg uswir wis ukkuẓ ad aɣ-teǧǧ ulac rrbeḥ ulac lexsara (nella +6, nɣamer s 6). Ayen i d-ijebden d akken lexsara deg yiswiren wis kraḍ d wis ukkuẓ ur tkellef ara aṭas seg yedrimen-nneɣ.

Tuzzyiwin 1–30

Tmenṭac n yineɛruḍen. Mraw xesren deg uswir amezwaru (−$10 yal yiwen), semmus deg wis sin (−$20 yal yiwen), sin deg wis kraḍ (+$20 yal yiwen), yiwen yekmel deg tuzzyiwin 27–30 (Z Z Z Z, +$120). Agmuḍ ačuran −$40 deffir 30 n tuzzyiwin, deffir mi tella −$160 deg tuzzya 26. Azrar yekmlen yettban-d am wakken anagraw yeteddu; d 5,6% i d-yusan deg wakud-is.

aneɛruḍamyizwerrrhunidrimen-nneɣ deg lxeṭṛačuran

1X10$10−$10

2R X10, 30$20−$20

3R R X10, 30, 20$0+$20

4–17s waṭas X deg uswir 1≤ 30≤ $20−$150

18R R R R10, 30, 20, 60$0+$120

deffir 3018 n yineɛruḍen, 1 yekmel−$40

Tuzzyiwin 31–60

Xmesṭac n yineɛruḍen, yiwen yekmel deg tuzzyiwin 44–47 s +$120, sin wwḍen ɣer uswir wis ukkuẓ xesren din (yal yiwen $0 ačuran: +$60 rebḥen, sakin $60 ttwarehnen, xesren). Agmuḍ ačuran −$10 i tallit-a; aneggaru −$50; taqacuct +$80 deg tuzzya 47. Sin n tummidin deg 33 n yineɛruḍen, mgal 1,8 yettwaṛǧan: tagrumma n lḥeqq.

Asnerni deffir rrbeḥ: taɣimit-a d ḥdac nniḍen am nettatagmuḍ mgal tazwara

1 000 n tɣimiyin × 500 n tuzzyiwin · amidadi p10/p25/p75/p90, anili afsas azal n tlemmast, 82 n yimedyaten ifsasen · sekcmet taɣerdayt deg udlif i yiswiren n yal tuzzya

p10 −$800
p25 −$520
azal n tlemmast −$240
p75 +$70
p90 +$350

1 000 n tɣimiyin × 500 n tuzzyiwin · agellus y yettwagzem ɣer yiswiren 1–99 (seg uzal amecṭuḥ akk −$1 000 ar umeqqran akk +$1 200) · 500 n tuzzyiwin · tazwara $10 · lexlaṣ imsawi

Lexsarat timecṭuḥin yettɣimin, tineggzin seg wakud ɣer wayeḍ. 1-3-2-6 d Paroli bḍan udem-a; azrar n rrhun ibeddel kan tiddi.

Leḥsabat

Amḍan n rrhun meṛṛa qrib $1 200 mgal $600 s rrehn ur nettbeddil. Lexsara yettwaṛǧantusnaktLexsara yettwaṛǧanAzal yettwaṛǧan seg tmerna n yidrimen yettwarhen; d alemmas n wayen yettwaxsar deg yiwet n tɣimit neɣ deg yiwen wakud.Ɣer akk → $32; tin n tidet −$50, daxel n yiwen ubeɛɛed alugantusnaktAbeɛɛed aluganAẓar amkuẓ n tavaryans; ameccaq n umata gar ugmuḍ d wazal yettwaṛǧan.Ɣer akk →. Taɣessa n wazrar tebɣa ad tini belli aṭas n yedrimen yellan ɣef ṭṭabla deg uneɛruḍ aɣezfan d idrimen i nerbeḥ snat n tuzzyiwin uqbel; d ayagi i d aɣurru i t-yerran d afessas. D idrimen-nneɣ seg wasmi ten-ixelleṣ ukrupi.

Ijiṭunen yettwaxellṣen snat n tuzzyiwin uqbel d idrimen n umurar s timmad-is.

Ayen i d-tesken teɣimit

1-3-2-6 d ParolitastratijitParoliAsnerni deffir rrbeḥ: snegmu deffir rrbeḥ, wennez deffir lexsara neɣ deffir kraḍ n rrbeḥ yemmeḍfaren. Daɣen: Martingale tamettiwt.Ɣer akk → s tiddi n rrhun tettwaheyya akken iswiren ineggura ad d-banen am wakken d ilelli. TaprubabilittusnaktTaprubabilitAzal n yiwen ugmuḍ ad d-yeḍru, seg 0 ɣer 1 neɣ seg 0% ɣer 100%. Yiwen wuṭṭun: 1/37 = 2,70%.Ɣer akk → n tummidt (18/37)⁴ = 5,6% d lexlaṣidrimenLexlaṣAyen i d-yettak rrehn i yerbḥen, yettwanna «X ɣef 1» nnig rrehn i d-yettuɣalen.Ɣer akk → n tummidt n 12 n yiferdisen, d leḥsab i ten-iḥeddden; talɣa n rrhun tettfru kan amek ara tettwabḍu 2,70%, ur yezmir yiwen ad yerwel seg-s, gar waṭas n lexsarat timecṭuḥin d kra n yirbaḥen imeqqranen. I umurar i iḥemmlen ad yeḍfer azrar n rrhun, ur yesɛi ara diri. Maca mačči d tarrayt.

Isteqsiyen

Ayɣer 1-3-2-6 mačči 1-2-4-8?

1-2-4-8 d Paroli alamma d ukkuẓ n yirbaḥen; yettɣamar s wayen akk yellan deg yal aswir. 1-3-2-6 teḥrez 2 n yiferdisen deffir uswir wis sin, ihi lexsara deg uswir wis kraḍ ur tkellef acemma seg wayla-nwen. Yiwen wazal yettwaṛǧan.

Amek i tettban s umata teɣimit tummidt?

S lexsara tamecṭuḥt, s yiwet neɣ snat n tineggzin. Qrib snat n tɣimiyin seg semmus i yettfakken s rrbeḥ deffir 60 n tuzzyiwin s uferdis-a.

Zemreɣ ad kemmleɣ deffir tummidt?

Kra n yimuraren kemmlen 1-3-2-6-12. Aswir d-iteddun yettarbaḥ 2,7% n wakud (semmus n uzeggaɣ yeṭṭafaren) yerna udem kif kif.

Taḍsa i usgunfu

Ukkuẓ n yirbaḥen yeṭṭafaren: 5,6%. Azrar n rrhun yettfru kan amek ara yettwaḥulfu.

Iɣbula

Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Ixef 13, rulit.

yettwasenqed 2026-09-28tamudemt: tawrupit, yiwen yilemtarrayt ↗iɣbula ↗