Timsizzal n rulit
Tagrumma n yijiṭunen n tazwara kif kif i yal yiwen, amḍan yettwasbadun n tuzzyiwin, d arraz i win ara yekfun deg zdat. Deg temsizzal n rulit, ijiṭunen n yimuraren nniḍen sɛan azal ula d nutni.
Deg temsizzla, yal amurar yettawi yiwen n umḍan n yijiṭunen n wurar d yiwen n umḍan n tuzzyiwin; arraz yettaɣ-it win ara yesɛun ijiṭunen ugar deg taggara. Lmaziyya n lkazinutusnaktLmaziyya n lkazinuAḥric n yal rrehn i teṭṭef lkazinu s ulemmas: 2,70% deg rulit tawrupit.Ɣer akk → mazal-itt ɣef yal rrehn, maca iswi d asɣelleb n yimuraren nniḍen, mačči n uḍebsi, u ayagi ibeddel anwa rrehn i ilaqen.
Amek tetteddu temsizzla n rulit?
Ssuma n ukcam, igrummen kif kif n yijiṭunenidrimenAjiṭunTamatart i d-yemmalen azal yettwasbedden, yettwasersen ɣef tfelwit akken ad yili rrehn. Daɣen: check.Ɣer akk → n temsizzla, amḍan yettwasbadun n tuzzyiwin (s waṭas seg 20 ɣer 50) neɣ talast n wakud, d tgrumma n warrazen i yettwaxelṣen i wid ara yekfun deg zdat. Ijiṭunen n temsizzla ur sɛin ara azal s yedrimen; arraz d netta kan i d idrimen. Tamsizzla n rulit deg Internet tetteddu ɣef ṭṭabla RNG neɣ srid s tfelwit n usmizwer; tid n tzeqqa n lkazinu d tidyanin i d-yettilin tikwal.
Ayɣer i tella tstratijit da
Deg rulit tamagnut, iswi d idrimen u yal rrehn yesɛa yiwen wazal yettwaṛǧan ddaw n yilem, ihi tastratijit kan i yellan d adrim n rrehn d urured. Deg temsizzla iswi d amkan. Win ara yekfun d wis sin s lexsara tameqqrant yesɛa yiwen wazal d win ara yekfun d wis sin s lexsara tamecṭuḥt: ulac. Ayen yesɛan azal d taprubabilittusnaktTaprubabilitAzal n yiwen ugmuḍ ad d-yeḍru, seg 0 ɣer 1 neɣ seg 0% ɣer 100%. Yiwen wuṭṭun: 1/37 = 2,70%.Ɣer akk → ad tekfum nnig yimuraren nniḍen, u ayagi yeqqen ɣer tvaryanstusnaktTavaryansAktazal n wamek i d-ttwazzaren igmaḍ i tama n wazal yettwaṛǧan. Meqqret i rrehn ɣef yiwen wuṭṭun, meẓẓiyet i rrhun s lexlaṣ imsawi.Ɣer akk →, mačči ɣer wazal yettwaṛǧan. Amurar yellan deffir ilaq ad yerhen s tvaryans tameqqrant (rrhun ɣef yiwen wuṭṭunrrehnYiwen wuṭṭunYiwen wuṭṭun kan, ixelleṣ 35:1.Ɣer akk →) akken ad yesɛu tagnit ad d-yaweḍ wiyaḍ; amurar yellan zdat ilaq ad yerhen s tvaryans tamecṭuḥt neɣ ur yettrehhin ara akken ad yeḥrez amkan-is.
Leḥsab n wawaḍ ɣer win yezwaren
Ad nini tellam deffir win yezwaren s 300 n yijiṭunen, kraḍ n tuzzyiwin i d-yeqqimen, 200 n yijiṭunen deg ufus. Rrhun s lexlaṣ imsawirrehnRrehn s lexlaṣ imsawiAzeggaɣ/aberkan, aryan/uyug, afellay/adday. 18 n wuṭṭunen, ixelleṣ 1:1.Ɣer akk → sran sin n rrbeḥ wa deffir wa, s kullec: 200 ɣer 400 ɣer 800, 24% akka. Rrehn ɣef yiwen wuṭṭun s 10 n yijiṭunen ixelleṣ 350 u yessaweḍ s tprubabilit 1/37 i tuzzya; kraḍ n yineɛruḍen ttaken-d 8% akka. Rrehn ɣef sin wuṭṭunenrrehnSin wuṭṭunenSin wuṭṭunen yemyuḍanen, ixelleṣ 17:1.Ɣer akk → s 20 n yijiṭunen ixelleṣ 340 s tprubabilit 2/37 i tuzzya; kraḍ n yineɛruḍen ttaken-d 15% akka. Afran yella gar tegnit tamecṭuḥt n rrbeḥ d tegnit tameqqrant ad tekfum d wis sin ɣas akken. Deg temsizzla, wis sin d ilem, ihi urar s tvaryans tameqqrant d netta i ilaqen.
Ayen ur nettbeddil ara
Yal rrehn mazal yesɛa EV −1/37 n udrim-is s yijiṭunen n temsizzla. Ma nerna imuraren meṛṛa, ijiṭunen ttazzalen ɣer lkazinu s 2,70% n umḍan n rrhun meṛṛaidrimenAmḍan n rrhun meṛṛaTamerna n yidrimen yettwarhen deg yiwet n tɣimit neɣ deg yiwen wakud, s rrbeḥ i yettuɣalen yettwarhen. Daɣen: handle, action.Ɣer akk →; tagrumma n warrazen tekka-d seg ssuma n ukcam. Tamsizzla ur terri ara rulit d tin ara yettwaɣelben; terra imnafsen d imuraren nniḍen, mgal-nsen tavaryans d afecku. D wa i d yiwen n umkan deg rulit anida « tastratijit » tesɛa anamek, u d tastratijit ɣef umkan, mačči ɣef uḍebsi.
Agzul n tidet
Ma tḥemmlem rulit u tebɣam ad yili deg wurar ayen ara tegzmem, tamsizzla tettak-iten-id. Ssuma n ukcam d netta i d ssuma; lkazinu tettawi amur-is seg tgrumma; ayen d-yeqqimen d amennuɣ n usefrek n tvaryans gar yimdanen i yettwalin meṛṛa yiwen n uḍebsi.
Isteqsiyen
Ala. Ijiṭunen n temsizzla ur sɛin ara azal s yedrimen.
Tavaryans tamecṭuḥt mi ara tilim zdat, tameqqrant mi ara tilim deffir, u walit igrummen n wiyaḍ. Aḍebsi d yiwen i yal yiwen.
Seg ssuma n ukcam d yimuraren ara yeqqimen sakin ɣef ṭṭablat n tidet.
Taḍsa i usgunfu
Mgal uḍebsi, ulac tastratijit. Mgal imuraren nniḍen, tavaryans d yiwet.
Iɣbula
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.