Lexrafa: uṭṭunen yeɛṭlen
«Sbeɛṭac ur d-yeffiɣ ara deg 150 n tuzzyiwin. Yewweḍ-d wakud-is.» Ala.
Uṭṭun ur d-nettban ara aṭas n wakud yesɛa deg tuzzya d-iteddun yiwet n taprubabilit am wayeḍ: 1/37. Amenzay belli «yewweḍ-d wakud-is» d tuccḍa n umqemmer s tfelwit n yigmaḍ.
Ayen i d-yettwanna
Lkazinu sskanent 20 ɣer 500 n yigmaḍ ineggura, s waṭas sbeggnent-d uṭṭunen «isemmaḍen» ur d-neffiɣ ara kra n wakud. Imuraren ɣerren tafelwit, walan belli 17 ulac-it 150 n tuzzyiwin, rehnen fell-as acku ilaq yewweḍ-d wakud-is. Ttxemmimen akka: deg uɣawas aɣezfan yal uṭṭun yettak-d 1/37 n wakud, ihi uṭṭun yeqqimen deffir ilaq ad d-yerr ayen i t-ifaten.
Ayɣer d tuccḍa
Tuzzyiwin d timanayin. TakurtibenkanTakurtTakurt tamecṭuḥt i yettwaḍeqqren deg ubrid mgal aqerru yettezzin. Tikurin n tura d ivorine neɣ d Teflon, 18–21 mm.Ɣer akk → ur teẓri ara belli 17 ulac-it, yerna taxxamtibenkanTaxxamtYiwet seg 37 n texxamin s wuṭṭunen ɣef uqerru yettezzin. Daɣen: slot, cup.Ɣer akk → tesɛa yiwet n tiddi am zik. Afmiḍi deg uɣawas aɣezfan yettqarrab s usfesi, mačči s useɣti: deffir 10 000 n tuzzyiwin nniḍen, tilmi n 150 n tuzzyiwin d tuccḍa n useẓḍi, mačči acku 17 yeffeɣ-d s waṭas ugar, maca acku tagrumma temɣer. Alugen n wuṭṭunen imeqqranentusnaktAlugen n wuṭṭunen imeqqranenAlemmas n yigmaḍ imanayen yettqerrib ɣer wazal yettwaṛǧan mi ara yettimɣur umḍan n tirmitin.Ɣer akk → ur yessutur ara ad d-yuɣal yiwen wuṭṭun; yessutur kan ahuzzu yezrin ad yuɣal d amecṭuḥ mgal amatu.
Ayɣer yettban d tidet
Acku deg yal aḥric nniḍen n tudert, tilmi tettbeccir s tusi: ma yella lkar ur d-yusi ara deg ɛecrin n tesdatin, taprubabilit ad d-yas deg semmus n tesdatin i d-iteddun tugar. Aya acku lkiran sɛan ahil. Rulit ulac ɣur-s ahil; tesɛa taprubabilittusnaktTaprubabilitAzal n yiwen ugmuḍ ad d-yeḍru, seg 0 ɣer 1 neɣ seg 0% ɣer 100%. Yiwen wuṭṭun: 1/37 = 2,70%.Ɣer akk →, yerna taprubabilit mačči d amur yettwabḍan. Aḥulfu-a yeṣḥa i tugget n umaḍal, d tuccḍa i uḍebsi.
Akayad
Arut timiḍi n wuṭṭunen «isemmaḍen» seg tfelwiyin n yigmaḍ, rhent ɣef yal yiwen deg 37 n tuzzyiwin d-iteddun. Afmiḍi n tikkal i d-yeffeɣ ad yili 1/37 i yal tuzzya, kif kif am yal uṭṭun yettwafren war afran, rnu neɣ kkes ahuzzu n tegnit. Tafelwit n yigmaḍ d aglam n wayen yezrin. Ur tettbeccir s wacemma i uḍebsi imsawi, yerna ɣef uḍebsi s umyaltanaritAḍebsi s umyalAḍebsi i deg ara xedmen yixeṣṣaṣen-is n lǧessa kra n texxamin ad d-ffɣent ugar n 1/37. D ayen yettwaxeṣṣren, ur yettwaf ara ala s yigiman n tuzzyiwin yettwarun.Ɣer akk → (ayen yesran igiman n tuzzyiwin akken ad yettwasbeggen) d uṭṭunen yeḥmanlexrafaUṭṭun yeḥmanUṭṭun i d-yeffɣen ugar n wayen yettwaṛǧan melmi kan. Ɣef uḍebsi imsawi ur d-yettbeggin acemma.Ɣer akk →, mačči wid isemmaḍen, i ɣef ara terhnem.
Lexrafa tamettiwt
«Sbeɛṭac yeḥma, rhen fell-as» d yiwet n tuccḍa s tezmilt yettwaqelben. Snat n tmenziyin sɛant yiwen wazal yettwaṛǧantusnaktAzal yettwaṛǧanAlemmas n ugmuḍ n yal rrehn deg uɣawas aɣezfan. −1/37 n rrehn i yal rrehn amagnu awrupi.Ɣer akk → am wakken ad tmedlem allen-nwen, ad tmmlem: −2,70% n udrim n rrehn. Deg Urar n uɛraḍ, sselkmet amazray, siḍnet acḥal n tikkal i d-yeffeɣ wuṭṭun asemmaḍlexrafaUṭṭun asemmaḍUṭṭun ur d-nettwaẓra ara aṭas n tuzzyiwin. Ɣef uḍebsi imsawi ur d-yettak ula d yiwet n telɣut ɣef tuzzyiwin ara d-yasen.Ɣer akk → deg 37 n tuzzyiwin d-iteddun; tiririt qrib 63,7%, kif kif am yal uṭṭun nniḍen.
Isteqsiyen
Tesskanay-ten acku imuraren ssutren-ten. Tafelwit d tidet, ur tenfiɛ ara.
(36/37)⁵⁰⁰ ≈ 0,0001%: d qlil, yerna yeqqim 1/37 deg tuzzya d-iteddun. Ma yeḍṛa-d yal tikkelt ɣef yiwen uḍebsi, d asteqsi n umyal wagi, tiririt ad tili d abeɛɛed ɣef wuṭṭun-nni.
Ala.
Taḍsa i usgunfu
Taprubabilit mačči d amur yettwabḍan.
Iɣbula
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.