Asurif s usurif · Asurif s usurif · 7 tsd

Asurif s usurif: Oscar’s Grind

Yiwen uferdis ugar deffir rrbeḥ, yiwen n udrim n rrehn deffir lexsara, taggara n tunnḍa s yiwen uferdis n rrbeḥ. Anagraw yettaẓayen akk, ɣef timiḍi n tuzzyiwin.

Tiririt tawezlant

Taɣimit Oscar’s Grind yettwasimulin n 100 n tuzzyiwin s $10 i uferdis ɣef uberkanrrehnAberkanRrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi ɣef 18 n wuṭṭunen iberkanen. S tefransist: noir.Ɣer akk →. Tam n tunnḍiwin fukkent s +$10 yal yiwet, yiwet seg-sent deffir 41 n tuzzyiwin, rrehn n $50 d uɣelluy n ugerruj n $230; tis tẓa teqqim teldi deg −$140 mi tekfa teɣimit. Ačuran −$60. Tavaryans tamecṭuḥt, ulac aɣelluy, yiwet n lmaziyya.

aferdis
$10 ɣef uberkan
alugen
+1 n uferdis deffir rrbeḥ, kif kif deffir lexsara
iswi n tunnḍa
+1 n uferdis
agmuḍ
−$60 deg 100 n tuzzyiwin

Ḍfer anagraw

Lexsara teǧǧa rrehn akken yella. Rrbeḥ yerna yiwen n uferdis, maca ur yettɛeddi ara ayen yesra tunnḍa akken ad tawweḍ ɣer +1. Ɣer +1 tunnḍa tamaynut ad tebdu.

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rrehn d-iteddun1tunnḍa-a0agmuḍ ar tura0tuzzyiwin0

Rrhun d yigmaḍ s yiferdisen n rrehn n tazwara.

Aɣawas

Rhent yiwen uferdisidrimenAferdisRrehn agejdan s wacu i yettxeddem unagraw neɣ amurar. Inagrawen n usnerni ttwaglamen s yiferdisen akken ad ilin i yal ṭṭabla.Ɣer akk →. Deffir lexsara, rhent kif kif. Deffir rrbeḥ, rnut yiwen uferdis, ala ma yella asnerni-nni ad yesɛeddi tunnḍa ugar n +1 n uferdis; dɣa rhent kan ayen ilaqen akken ad tfakk s +1 kan. Mi ara tili tunnḍa s yiwen uferdis n rrbeḥ, bdut tikkelt nniḍen s yiwen uferdis. Rrehn yettali kan deffir yirbaḥen, ihi azrar n lexsarat werǧin yessali-t; taɛekkemt d-tettas seg wakken ilaq wazrar n yirbaḥen akken ad teffɣem seg lḥefra yettwaɣzen s udrim amecṭuḥ.

Taprubabilit n yizrar deg rulit

Tuzzyiwin 1–30

Ukkuẓ n tunnḍiwin fukkent. Tin yeṭṭulen akk tesɛa ḥdac n tuzzyiwin: X X X (−$30 s $10), R (−$20, rrehn ɣer $20), X X (−$60), R (−$40, rrehn ɣer $30), R (−$10; asnerni ɣer $40 ad yesɛeddi iswi, ihi rrehn $20), X (−$30), R (−$10), R: tunnḍa deg +$10, tekfa. Ačuran deffir 30 n tuzzyiwin +$40. Rrhun werǧin zgren $30. D anagraw ur nesseḥmay ara akk deg usmel, d ayen yelhan.

tunnḍatuzzyiwinrrehn ameqqran akkaɣelluy n ugerrujačuran
13$20−$10+$10
211$30−$60+$10
35$20−$20+$10
411$30−$50+$10
deffir 304 n tunnḍiwin+$40

Tuzzyiwin 31–71

Tunnḍa taɣezfant. Tam n lexsarat deg mraw n tuzzyiwin timezwura ɣzant −$50. Irbaḥen ssulin rrehn ɣer $20, $30, $40, $50; lexsarat s yidrimen-a ɣzant ugar, alamma d −$230 deg tuzzya 52. Seg da, tallit yelhan, ḥdac n yirbaḥen deg seṭṭac n tuzzyiwin s rrhun n $40–$50, terra-tt-id, tunnḍa tekfa deg tuzzya 71 s +$10. Waḥed u ṛebɛin n tuzzyiwin, $230 deg lxeṭṛ deg uswir n diri akk, yiwen uferdis yettwarbeḥ.

Taɣimit-a d tẓa nniḍen am nettatagmuḍ mgal tazwara
+$1 110$0−$1 000+$890−$5000125250375500tuzzyiwinagmuḍ
1 000 n tɣimiyin × 500 n tuzzyiwin · amidadi p10/p25/p75/p90, anili afsas azal n tlemmast, 83 n yimedyaten ifsasen · sekcmet taɣerdayt deg udlif i yiswiren n yal tuzzya
  • p10 −$1 000
  • p25 −$1 000
  • azal n tlemmast −$1 000
  • p75 +$710
  • p90 +$880
1 000 n tɣimiyin × 500 n tuzzyiwin · agellus y yettwagzem ɣer yiswiren 1–99 (seg uzal amecṭuḥ akk −$1 000 ar umeqqran akk +$1 280) · 500 n tuzzyiwin · tazwara $10 · lexlaṣ imsawi
Tiswiɛin ɣezzifen war abeddel, tikliwin timecṭuḥin ɣer usawen, kra n yiɣzran yeɣmeqen, i seg-sen d-tettali s ttawil. Tasawent n ulemmas d tin n yal tikkelt.
Waḥed u ṛebɛin n tuzzyiwin d $230 n lexsara deg uswir n diri akk, akken ad tfakk s yiwen uferdis n rrbeḥ.

Tuzzyiwin 72–100

Kraḍ n tunnḍiwin nniḍen fukkent, yiwet tettwaǧǧa deg tuzzya 100 deg −$140 s rrehn n $30. Aneggaru −$60: tam n tunnḍiwin s +$10 d yiwet n tunnḍa teldi deg −$140 (tunnḍa yeldin d abrid n yal tikkelt i tettfakk yis-s teɣimit Oscar, acku tunnḍiwin d tiɣezfanin).

Leḥsabat

Alemmas n udrim n rrehn qrib $22, amḍan n rrhun meṛṛa qrib $2 200 mgal $1 000 s rrehn ur nettbeddil. Lexsara yettwaṛǧantusnaktLexsara yettwaṛǧanAzal yettwaṛǧan seg tmerna n yidrimen yettwarhen; d alemmas n wayen yettwaxsar deg yiwet n tɣimit neɣ deg yiwen wakud.Ɣer akk → $59; tin n tidet −$60. Taɣimit i yewwḍen ɣer wayen yettwaṛǧan, ayen i yettxedim Oscar’s Grind s waṭas ugar n yinagrawen nniḍen acku tavaryanstusnaktTavaryansAktazal n wamek i d-ttwazzaren igmaḍ i tama n wazal yettwaṛǧan. Meqqret i rrehn ɣef yiwen wuṭṭun, meẓẓiyet i rrhun s lexlaṣ imsawi.Ɣer akk →-ines tamecṭuḥt: rrehn yettnerni kan mi ara nerbeḥ, werǧin s sin.

Ayen i d-tesken teɣimit

Oscar’s Grind d anagraw yettwaheyya sɣur win yefhmen wiyaḍ. Ulac ɣur-s aɣelluy, rrehn yeqqim d amecṭuḥ, yettak-d izrar ɣezzifen n yirbaḥen imecṭaḥ. Ssuma d akud: tunnḍiwin zemrent ad ṭṭulent ṛebɛin n tuzzyiwin, yerna rrbeḥ n yiwen uferdis deg taggara yettwaɣ s uɣelluy n ugerrujidrimenAɣelluy n ugerrujAɣelluy seg uqerru n ugerruj ɣer uswir adday i d-iteddun deg yiwet n tɣimit. Aɣelluy ameqqran d win akk yugaren.Ɣer akk → ugar s ɛecrin n tikkal. Lexsara yettwaṛǧan i yal adular yettwarehnen d 2,70%, taɛekkemt tettarnu idularen.

Isteqsiyen

Anwa i d Oscar?

D amurar n craps i d-yeglem Allan Wilson deg The Casino Gambler’s Guide (1965). Anagraw yezwar isem-is.

Tavaryans tamecṭuḥt telha?

Tebɣa ad tini belli agmuḍ-nwen ad yili qrib n wayen yettwaṛǧan. Ayen yettwaṛǧan ddaw n yilem. Tavaryans tamecṭuḥt telha ma tebɣam ssuma yettwassnen i tmeddit, ur telhi ara ma tebɣam taprubabilit n rrbeḥ ameqqran.

D acu i yessekfayen tunnḍa ur nettfakk ara?

AgerrujidrimenAgerrujAkk idrimen yettwaǧǧan i wurar. Asefrek n ugerruj d tagrut: acḥal seg-s ara tesrem i yal rrehn d yal taɣimit.Ɣer akk →-nwen neɣ ṣṣbeṛ-nwen. Anagraw ulac ɣur-s alugen n usbeddi; ilaq amurar ad d-yawi yiwen.

Taḍsa i usgunfu

Abrid yettaẓayen akk i lexsara n 2,70%. D win yehdan akk daɣen.

Abrid yettaẓayen akk i lexsara n 2,70%. D win yehdan akk daɣen.

Iɣbula

  1. Wilson, A. The Casino Gambler’s Guide. Harper & Row, 1965.
  2. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Ixef 13, rulit.
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