The Eudaemons
Inelmaden n tfizikt, aḍebsi n lkazinu yettwaɣen s yedrimen deg ufus, d uselkim amecṭuḥ akken ad yettwals ɣer ṭṭabla.
Seg 1976 ar 1981, yiwet n terbaɛt n yinelmaden n tfizikt deg Santa Cruz bnan iselkimen umḍinen i yettaktazalen takurt d uqerru yettezzin, ttakken-d tagzemt n uḍebsi mi ara yili mazal rrhun ldin. Ikayaden-nsen ɛehden lmaziyya n 44%, taɣimit tamezwarut taɣezfant tefka-d azal n 25%. Allal yettḥebbis yal tikkelt, lqem yettwasbedden deg usebbaḍ yeɣleb-it ṣṣut n trisiti deg 1981, rebḥen kra n yigiman n yidulaṛen.
Tikti deg yiwet n tberna n Las Vegas, 1975
Deg unebdu n 1975, Norman Packard, anelmad n tfizikt, yezri sin n wayyuren yettḥessib tikarḍiwin deg blackjack deg Las Vegas akked umeddakel-is Jack Biles, qrib ur rbiḥen ur xsiren. Deg tissit taneggarut, Biles yenna-d ad yerhen belli rulit tezmer ad tettwaɣleb s tfizikt, Packard yecfa-d ɣef yiwen ujerriḍ uffir deg Beat the Dealer n Edward Thorp ɣef tarrayt n rulit. I sin-nsen ṛḍlen amsekles n ṣṣut, bedden rrif n yiḍebsiyen deg kra n lkazinu, kkaten amikru yal tikkelt ara tɛeddi tkurtibenkanTakurtTakurt tamecṭuḥt i yettwaḍeqqren deg ubrid mgal aqerru yettezzin. Tikurin n tura d ivorine neɣ d Teflon, 18–21 mm.Ɣer akk → ɣef yiwet n tneqqiḍt ur nettbeddil. Mi ten-uran ɣef lkaɣeḍ n tɛeqqidin, tikkatin sskanent-d takurt tettɛeṭṭil, tettɣelli s tarrayt yettwasebden. Ameddakel n uɣerbaz n Packard, Doyne Farmer, anelmad n tesdawit deg University of California, Santa Cruz, yenna-d d asexsar n wakud alamma yexdem leḥsab s yiman-is: amdan yezmren ad yektazel takurt s wazal n yiwen n umur seg mraw n tsint, ilaq, ɣef lkaɣeḍ, ad yini anda ara teɣli s kra n wuṭṭunen kan n lxilaf.
Aḍebsi deg tnarit n tfizikt
Deg tefsut n 1976, Farmer d Dan Browne xelṣen $1 500 s yedrimen deg ufus ɣef uḍebsi n lkazinu yettwaseɣten deg yiwet n tnezzut deg Reno, nnan-d i tmeɣra n yinelmaden. Aṭas n wayyuren ttawin-t s yiḍ ɣer tnarit n uselmed n tesdawit, skaslen-t s yimeẓḍaḍ n tafat n ddaw uzeggaɣ (infrarouge), s usrag aliktruni yettwaxedmen deg uxxam d tkamiṛa i yettekkren s ṣṣut n tkurt mi ara tewwet uzzal. Ayen i d-ufan mazal d umuɣ awezlan yelhan n wayen yesɛan azal deg tuzzya. D aḍu i yettɛeṭṭilen takurt s waṭas, ugar n ubrid. Aḍebsi ur nemsawan ara s yiwen n umur seg mraw n lpus kan ibeddel anda teffeɣ tkurt seg ubrid, yerna ɣef uḍebsi yeknan takurt tettmal ad teffeɣ seg tama yuɛlan, ayen yessahalen tifin uqbel. Tikurin mgaradent: takurt n Teflon tettɛeṭṭil s sin n tikkal ugar n tin n tkurt n billard. Yerna mi ara teffeɣ tkurt seg ubrid mazal-itt tneggez, s ulemmas ur tettɛeddi ara rrbeɛ ar tulut n tuzzya. Tanegza-a d asteqsi ɣef yeqqen usenfar meṛṛa, yerna ur tella ara meqqret akken ad tesfeḍ tifin uqbel. Deg taggara n unebdu, rran lmaziyya i yezmren ad tili ɣer 44%, d amḍan i yefka Thorp i wallal-is s timmad-is.
Takebbanit d ugṛum
Semman axeddim-a Eudaemonic Enterprises, seg yiwen wawal n tegrigit i lferḥ n tudert yettwaddren s lɛeqel. Yal win yexdmen deg-s ilaq ad yettwaxelleṣ seg rrbeḥ i d-iteddun akken llan yisragen i yexdem: aḥric seg wayen i semman Eudaemonic Pie. Rrbeḥ yella ad yexelleṣ tamɣiwant n yimdukal ara yexdmen tussna s yilugan-nsen.
Aselkim ddaw uɣil, 1976–1978
Tamacint tamezwarut temɣer-d seg uselkim n yiḥricen i d-yusan s lbusṭa deg Ctembeṛ 1976 s $250, yebnan ɣef usesfer 6502 i sseqdacen ula d iselkimen n Apple. Farmer, werǧin i yaru aseɣzan uqbel, yura deg-s tigdawin n tkurt d uqerru yettezzin (rotor)ibenkanAqerru yettezzin (rotor)Aḥric n uḍebsi yettezzin i yeṭṭfen tixxamin.Ɣer akk →. Lqem n lkazinu yettwals yeqqen ɣer tfekka, ddaw uɣil neɣ, i tilawin, deg lḥezzam n yidmaren. Amurar ɣer uḍebsi yettekkat ɣef tqeffalin s yiḍudan imeqqranen n uḍar: yiwen uḍad yettcerreḍ ilemaḍebsiIlemTaxxamt tazegzawt tasuft ur yeṭṭif ula d yiwen n rrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi, n ddzina neɣ n tgejdit; d aɣbalu n lmaziyya n lkazinu. Daɣen: yiwen yilem, 0.Ɣer akk → syin takurt yal tikkelt ara ɛeddin ɣef tneqqiḍt ur nettbeddil, wayeḍ yettbeddil aseɣzan seg uswir ɣer wayeḍ. Aswati n useɣzan i yiwen uḍebsi yettawi azal n ɛecrin n tesdatin n tkatin s tsusmi. Syin, deg kra n tsinin seg yal tuzzya, aselkim yettak-d yiwet seg tam n tigezminaḍebsiTagzemtAḥric n texxamin yemmeḍfaren ɣef uḍebsi, mačči d tagrumma ɣef tfelwit.Ɣer akk → n uḍebsi, neɣ yettcerriḍ «ulac rrehn», s tergagit n yibeḍbiḍen imecṭuḥen ɣef yiglim. Amurar wis sin i yellan ugar ɣer tama nniḍen n ṭṭabla, yeqqnen s tɣessast n radyu taḍeɛfant, yettḥulfu i tergagit-nni yakan, yettɣumu kraḍ neɣ ukkuẓ n wuṭṭunen n tegzemt-nni, tikwal yesbeddel yiwen s wuṭṭun i t-id-yezgan ɣef uḍebsi akken talɣa ad tewɛer i tɣuri.
Abrid amezwaru, ɣer Lake Tahoe d Reno deg Dujembir 1977, yella d yiwet n tuccḍa taɣezfant n wallal. Kra n yimalasen deffir, deg Golden Gate deg tlemmast n Las Vegas, Farmer yurar weḥd-s ukkuẓ n yisragen d uzgen s mraw n yiṣurdiyen i ujiṭunidrimenAjiṭunTamatart i d-yemmalen azal yettwasbedden, yettwasersen ɣef tfelwit akken ad yili rrehn. Daɣen: check.Ɣer akk →. Rrbeḥ yella d amecṭuḥ, maca ɣef kra n tmiḍawin n tuzzyiwin, netta d Browne rran lmaziyya, s leḥder, ɣer 25%.
Anebdu n 1978
Deg unebdu-nni, tarbaɛt turar s tunnḍiwin aṭas n yimalasen, deg tlemmast n temdint d Strip, snat n tɣimiyin i wass, werǧin deg yiwet n lkazinu deg sin n yiḍan wa deffir wa. Ttarun deg tkarnit ɣef yal lkazinu: iḍebsiyen-is d acḥal i knan, imxeddmen-is, abeddel n tunnḍiwin-is. Iḍebsiyen n Las Vegas ufan-ten knan akken ilaq, uraren n yiḍ ttɛeṭṭilen, d ayen i yeḥwaǧ uselkim, imi aqerru yettɛeṭṭilen d tkurt tazrit ttaǧǧan ugar n wakud i uskasel d rrehn. Llan yiḍan yelhan. Deg Circus Circus, abeddel n ukrupiimdanenAkrupiBab n ṭṭabla n rulit, i yettsellifen urar.Ɣer akk → deg ssaɛa n sin n tṣebḥit yerra taɣimit n lexsara d kra n tmiḍawin n yidulaṛen s 25 n yiṣurdiyen i ujiṭun. Yerna llant tuccḍiwin wa deffir wa: ifilen yerxan, tiɣessasin n radyu i yettbeddilen s tezɣelt, tiyitiwin n trisiti seg yifilen n lanten yettwagnen deg yiqendyar-nsen. Yiwen yiḍ, ibeḍbiḍen ḥebsen, ifilen ḥman, Ingrid Hoermann tkemmel turar ɣas aḥriq wala ad teǧǧ ṭṭabla n rrbeḥ. Imxeddmen n lkazinu walan rrbeḥ, werǧin walan tarrayt; yiwet n tikkelt, yiwen ukrupi, yeɣḍeb ɣef tqermiṭ n yijiṭunen yettimɣuren, yeṭṭef aḍebsi yettezzin, yesseḥrek-it s leǧhed.
Deg tlettac n wayyuren, xedmen tam n tirzaf ɣer Nevada, s rrhun n dime d quarter s waṭas, rebḥen kra n yigiman n yidulaṛen. Taɣimit deg California Club deg Dujembir 1978 tewwi-d ugar n $1 000 deg kraḍ n yisragen, terra-ten ad amnen belli tarrayt teswa allal yelhan ugar.
Packard d Biles ttaktazalen tikurin n rulit s umsekles n ṣṣut deg Las Vegas.
Aḍebsi n lkazinu yettwaɣen deg Reno; anebdu n yiskasalen; aselkim amezwaru n yiḥricen.
Abrid amezwaru ɣer lkazinu, Lake Tahoe d Reno. Allal ur yeddi ara.
Golden Gate, Las Vegas: ukkuẓ n yisragen d uzgen s rrhun n dime, lmaziyya tettwarra ɣer 25%.
Imalasen n wurar deg Las Vegas s uselkim yettwalsan ɣef tfekka.
California Club: ugar n $1 000 deg kraḍ n yisragen.
Aselkim yettwabna tikkelt nniḍen akken ad yekcem deg usebbaḍ.
Las Vegas: ṣṣut n trisiti yeɣreq tiɣessast n radyu. Asenfar yeḥbes.
Nevada tegdel ibenkan n tifin uqbel n ugmuḍ. The Eudaemonic Pie yeffeɣ-d.
Aselkim deg usebbaḍ, 1980–1981
Akken ad kksen ifilen seg tfekka-nsen, fran ad ssekcmen kullec deg yisebbaḍen. Mark Truitt, anelmad amaynut n tfizikt i yeǧǧan adiwenni n uxeddim ɣef radar n lɛesker, yezri aseggas d uzgen fell-as. Tikti i t-yessekcmen tusa-d seg yiwen utiknisyan n tesdawit: asexsi n uselkim gar yal tifin uqbel d tayeḍ: ihi yeḥwaǧ drus s waṭas n tbaṭriyin. Truitt yessers iferdisen n tliktrunit ɣef snat n tfelwiyin n tliktrunit i yeqqes s yiman-is, yerra yiwet nnig tayeḍ, yeččur tallunt s ccmeɛ yeqquren, d ayen i d-yefkan taɣawsa n wazal n sin n lpus ɣef ukkuẓ, azgen n lpus n tazurt, i ɣef zemren ad ddun. Tibaṭriyin, lanten d sin seg kraḍ n yibeḍbiḍen kecmen deg tqerrist. Kraḍ n yibeḍbiḍen s kraḍ n tazzla fkan-d tẓa n tecraḍ: tam n tigezmin d «ulac rrehn». Yiwen uxerraz yesxwa isebbaḍen n yiglim imagnuyen, ur yesteqsa ɣef acemma.
Deg Nunembir 1981, Farmer d umaru Thomas Bass wwin isebbaḍen d $2 500 ɣer Las Vegas. Ɣef ṭṭabla tamezwarut, tifin uqbel tamezwarut teṣḥa, syin ibeḍbiḍen bdan ttekkren s zzher. Lkazinu ččurent d ṣṣut n trisiti, seg tkamiṛatin n uɛessi, tizmilin n neon d tmacinin n slot, yerna yeɣreq tiɣessast taḍeɛfant n radyu gar yisebbaḍen; tiliẓri deg tzeqqa n usensu texdem ayen-nni yakan. Ussan n useɣti sɣur ukkuẓ n yimdanen ur t-id-sseḥlan ara, asenfar yeḥbes dinna. Allal yekcem tasenduqt deg tesraft deg Santa Cruz.
Ayen yebɣa ad yini 44%
Ɣef uḍebsi amarikani, rrehn ɣef yiwen wuṭṭunrrehnYiwen wuṭṭunYiwen wuṭṭun kan, ixelleṣ 35:1.Ɣer akk → yettrebḥ yiwet n tikkelt deg 38 n tuzzyiwin s ulemmas, ixelleṣ 35 ɣef 1, d ayen i yessexsaren amurar 5,26%. Lmaziyya n 44% d azal n rrehn-nni yakan mi ara yerbeḥ yiwet n tikkelt deg 25 n tuzzyiwin: 36 n yijiṭunen ttuɣalen-d i yal 25 yettwarehnen. Ihi aselkim werǧin yeḥwaǧ ad yessen uṭṭun. Ilaq kan ad yerr uṭṭunen i yefren ad d-alin azal n yiwet n tikkelt d uzgen ugar n wayen yettaǧǧa zzher.
Acuɣer lmaziyya tameqqrant mazal-itt tettban am lqmer
Lmaziyya s 35 ɣef 1 txelleṣ s ttawil, ur temsawi ara. Yiwen seg yimesnaḥen n terbaɛt yenna-d amurar i yettrehinen $100 ɣef yal uṭṭun yezmer ad yexser $10 000 neɣ $20 000 uqbel ad d-tban lmaziyya, yerna leḥsab yeqbel-it: s lmaziyya n 44% ɣef yiwen wuṭṭun, amurar mazal-it deg lexsara deffir 100 n tuzzyiwin qrib yiwet n tikkelt seg ukkuẓ. Daymi Eudaemons bdan s dime, bnan agerrujidrimenAgerrujAkk idrimen yettwaǧǧan i wurar. Asefrek n ugerruj d tagrut: acḥal seg-s ara tesrem i yal rrehn d yal taɣimit.Ɣer akk →-nsen seg rrbeḥ, daymi Alan Lewis, i ten-id-yernan deg 1978, yezri akud-is ɣef acḥal ara yerhen. Farmer yeɣil syin belli llan ḥadren aṭas. Rrhun imecṭuḥen ḥerzen-ten, maca bɣan ad d-inin daɣen belli iseggasen n uxeddim wwin-d drus s waṭas.
Acḥal i yeswa d acḥal i d-yewwi
Azal n $15 000 iṛuḥ ɣef yiḥricen, ifecka d lexlaṣ n Truitt, tuget-is seg Farmer d Letty Belin, tamastant i yezweǧ syin. Farmer yettwaḥseb s 3 500 n yisragen n uxeddim, Truitt s 3 000, Packard s 2 000. Mgal waya, llan kra n yigiman n yidulaṛen yettwarebḥen s rrhun imecṭuḥen. Deg 1983, Farmer yerra adellel deg yiwen usezggay n lqmer i yimesgaden n yedrimen, yeglem-d tamudemt tamezwarut s lmaziyya yettwabeggnen deg lkazinu n 20 ar 40%. Mi uraren Eudaemons, anadi n Belin deg yilugan n Nevada ur d-yufi acemma i yegdlen tifin uqbel n ugmuḍ n wurar; deg Mayyu 1985, tamurt terra aseqdec n wallal i waya d tuccḍa n lqanun. Ayen i yeqqimen d tussna. Lebni n yiselkimen yesselmed Farmer, Packard d yimdukal-nsen i tezrawt n chaos, anda i bnan isem-nsen.
Taɣuri n udlis ass-a
Thomas Bass, i yesserrsen rrhun deg ubrid aneggaru, yeḥka-d taqsiḍt deg The Eudaemonic Pie (1985), yebnan ɣef yidiwenniyen ɣezzifen akked terbaɛt, yerna d netta i d aɣbalu n tasna-a. Amezruy-is awezlan n rulit ur yettwamman ara am uglam-is n usenfar. Yettales-d tamacahut n sḍis n yimaruyen n Jagger, i d-yuɣalen ɣer yiwen udlis n 1901 ur tɛeddi ara (walit Joseph Jagger), yerna yerra akayad n Thorp d Shannon deg lkazinu ɣer 1962, anda imeslayen n Thorp s timmad-is qqaren anebdu n 1961.
Isteqsiyen
Ala. Rebḥen kra n yigiman n yidulaṛen s rrhun n dime d quarter, ṣerfen azal n $15 000 d aṭas n yigiman n yisragen.
Mi uraren, Nevada ur tesɛi ara alugen mgal tifin uqbel n ugmuḍ s wallal. Tesɛa yiwen seg 1985, yerna tuget n yimukan s lkazinu sɛan-t tura.
Ala anda rrhun ttwamedlen mi ara tettwaḍeggeṛ tkurt, akken yella deg yistudyuyen srid, yerna asekcem n wallal am wa ɣer lkazinu d tuccḍa n lqanun deg tuget n tmura.
Urar s tusnakt
Ɛerḍet-tent s yiman-nwen qbel. Yal tifrat tettwaffer; ldit-tt mi ara tilim twejdem.
The Eudaemons ḥesben belli aselkim-nsen yesɛa azal n 44% ɣef yiwen wuṭṭunrrehnYiwen wuṭṭunYiwen wuṭṭun kan, ixelleṣ 35:1.Ɣer akk → ɣef uḍebsi amarikani, anda rrehn ixelleṣ 35 ɣef 1. Acḥal n tikkal ilaq ad yerbeḥ wuṭṭun yettwafernen akken ad yili wayagi d tidet? D acḥal seg 38 n texxaminibenkanTaxxamtYiwet seg 37 n texxamin s wuṭṭunen ɣef uqerru yettezzin. Daɣen: slot, cup.Ɣer akk → ara tekkes tifin uqbel, ma yella takurtibenkanTakurtTakurt tamecṭuḥt i yettwaḍeqqren deg ubrid mgal aqerru yettezzin. Tikurin n tura d ivorine neɣ d Teflon, 18–21 mm.Ɣer akk → tezmer ad teɣli s yiwet n tprubabilit deg yal yiwet seg tid i d-yeqqimen?
Sken-d tifrat
Tiririt Yiwet n tikkelt deg 25 n tuzzyiwin. D ayen-nni yiwen am tukksa n 13 n texxamin u aǧǧa n 25.
AjiṭunidrimenAjiṭunTamatart i d-yemmalen azal yettwasbedden, yettwasersen ɣef tfelwit akken ad yili rrehn. Daɣen: check.Ɣer akk → i yerbḥen yuɣal-d s 35 nniḍen: 36 n yijiṭunen. Ma yerbeḥ wuṭṭun yiwet n tikkelt deg n n tuzzyiwin, n n yijiṭunen yettwarehnen rran-d 36, ihi rrehn yesɛa azal n 36/n − 1.
Sbeddet-it ɣef 0,44: 36/n = 1,44, ihi n = 25. War tifin uqbel, n d 38 u rrehn yesɛa azal n 36/38 − 1 = −5,26%.
Tura xemmet tifin uqbel tekkes k n texxamin u takurt tezmer ad teɣli s yiwet n tprubabilit deg yal yiwet seg 38 − k nniḍen. Ajiṭun ɣef yiwet seg-sent yerbeḥ yiwet n tikkelt deg 38 − k n tuzzyiwin. I 44% nesra 38 − k = 25, ihi k = 13: cwiṭ ugar n tulut n uḍebsi.
Deg udlis, Farmer yettwanqel yenna-d belli 40% d-yettas seg tukksa n tam n texxamin. S tmudemt-a tafessast, tam ttak-d 36/30 − 1 = 20%, ihi tugna n tidet ilaq ad tili ur temsawa ara: kra n texxamin i d-yeqqimen ttwaṛǧunt ugar aṭas n tiyaḍ.
tixxamin yettwakksentixxamin yeqqimenazal n yiwen wuṭṭun038−5,26%2360%830+20%1325+44%1919+89%Xemmet uṭṭun-nwen yettrebḥ s tidet yiwet n tikkelt deg 25 n tuzzyiwin s 35 ɣef 1, lmaziyya n 44%. Trehnem yiwen ujiṭun i yal tuzzya. Acḥal d taprubabilit ad tilim deg lexsara deffir 100 n tuzzyiwin? Deffir 500?
Sken-d tifrat
Tiririt Qrib 23% deffir 100 n tuzzyiwin u mazal qrib 6% deffir 500.
Deffir 100 n tuzzyiwin, trehnem 100 n yijiṭunen, u yal rrbeḥ yerra-d 36. Sin n rrbeḥ rran-d 72, lexsara n 28; kraḍ rran-d 108, rrbeḥ n 8. Ihi tellam deg lexsara ma terbḥem snat n tikkal neɣ drus.
Taprubabilit n ulac rrbeḥ deg 100 n tuzzyiwin d (24/25)¹⁰⁰ = 1,7%. Yiwen n rrbeḥ kan: 100 × (1/25) × (24/25)⁹⁹ = 7,0%. Sin kan: 4 950 × (1/25)² × (24/25)⁹⁸ = 14,5%. Akk 23,2%.
Deffir 500 n tuzzyiwin, tesram 14 n rrbeḥ akken ad tilim deg rrbeḥ (14 × 36 = 504), u alemmas d 20. Taprubabilit n 13 neɣ drus d qrib 6,2%.
D tama nniḍen n rrehn ur nettrebḥ ara aṭas. Lmaziyya d tameqqrant, u deg qrib yiwen uzrar n 100 n tuzzyiwin seg ukkuẓ ur d-tettban ara. Amurar ur nessin ara s tidet belli lmaziyya tella ur yezmir ara ad yemyez azrar n diri seg uselkim yerrẓen, d tagnit-a i deg llan s waṭas Eudaemons.
tuzzyiwinrrbeḥ yettusran i rrbeḥ ačurantaprubabilit n lexsara50240,1%100323,2%200618,6%500146,2%Adlis yenna belli s lmaziyya n 44%, $100 yettwarehnen 50 n tikkal deg ssaɛa ilaq ad d-yawi $2 200 deg ssaɛa. Senqdet-it. Syin ḥesbet acu i d-yewwi lmaziyya-nni s rrhun i turar s tidet terbaɛt: yiwen n dime i yal tuzzya.
Sken-d tifrat
Tiririt $2 200 d tidet i $100 i yal tuzzya. S dime i yal tuzzya d $2,20 deg ssaɛa.
Lmaziyya d tasgunt n wayen meṛṛa yettwarehnen. S $100 i yal tuzzya d 50 n tuzzyiwin deg ssaɛa, $5 000 ttwarehnen, u 44% seg-sen d $2 200.
S 10 n ssentim i yal tuzzya, $5 ttwarehnen deg ssaɛa, u 44% n $5 d $2,20. Ula ma ḍebbren ukkuẓ n wuṭṭunen s dime i yal yiwen, d $8,80 deg ssaɛa i sin n yimdanen.
Tarbaɛt turar s drus acku tettebni agerrujidrimenAgerrujAkk idrimen yettwaǧǧan i wurar. Asefrek n ugerruj d tagrut: acḥal seg-s ara tesrem i yal rrehn d yal taɣimit.Ɣer akk → seg ulac u acku, akken i d-tesskan tmsalt nnig-a, lmaziyya n 44% s 35 ɣef 1 tezmer ad texser isragen. Ssuma n leḥder-a d akken tarrayt tezmer ad teddu akken iwata u ad txelleṣ drus ɣef uxeddim.
Taḍsa i usgunfu
Tafizikt teddi. Neon yerbeḥ.
Iɣbula
- Bass, T. A. The Eudaemonic Pie.
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”
- Thorp, E. O. “The invention of the first wearable computer.”
- Nevada Revised Statutes, tasuret 465.