Ugur: acḥal ar ad d-yeffeɣ yilem
Ilem yettak-d yiwet n tuzzya seg 37 s ulemmas. Acḥal ara tettraǧum s tidet, d acu ara yexdem waya i umurar s lexlaṣ imsawi?
Araǧu n yilem d ajyumitran: alemmas 37 n tuzzyiwin, azal n tlemmast 25, yerna yiwen uraǧu seg ɛecrin yezgar 110 n tuzzyiwin. Deg teɣimit n 200 n tuzzyiwin, amurar s lexlaṣ imsawi yettraǧu 5,4 n yilmawen, ad iwali anda yebɣu seg 1 ɣer 10.
Ugur
IlemaḍebsiIlemTaxxamt tazegzawt tasuft ur yeṭṭif ula d yiwen n rrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi, n ddzina neɣ n tgejdit; d aɣbalu n lmaziyya n lkazinu. Daɣen: yiwen yilem, 0.Ɣer akk → yesɛa taprubabilittusnaktTaprubabilitAzal n yiwen ugmuḍ ad d-yeḍru, seg 0 ɣer 1 neɣ seg 0% ɣer 100%. Yiwen wuṭṭun: 1/37 = 2,70%.Ɣer akk → n 1/37 i tuzzya. (a) D acu i d taprubabilit ulac ilem deg 37 n tuzzyiwin d-iteddun? (b) D acu i d azal n tlemmast n uraǧu? (c) Deg teɣimit n 200 n tuzzyiwin s lexlaṣ imsawi, acḥal n yilmawen ara yettraǧu umurar, d acu i d agraw?
Tifrat
(a) (36/37)³⁷ = 36,3%. Ugar n tulut n wakud, 37 n tuzzyiwin ttɛeddint war ula d yiwen yilem, d yiwen leḥsab am «ma drus yiwet n tuṭṭfa ɣef yiwen wuṭṭunrrehnYiwen wuṭṭunYiwen wuṭṭun kan, ixelleṣ 35:1.Ɣer akk → deg 37 n tuzzyiwin» i yellan d 63,7% kan. (b) Araǧu W d ajyumitran; p(W > k) = (36/37)ᵏ; azal n tlemmast d k anida ayagi yezger 0,5, i d k ≈ 25. Azgen n yiraǧuten d 25 n tuzzyiwin neɣ drus, azgen ugar; alemmas n 37 yettwajbed ɣer usawen sɣur ujeḥnuḍ aɣezfan. (c) Ilmawen deg 200 n tuzzyiwin d abinumyal s ulemmas 200/37 = 5,4 d ubeɛɛed alugantusnaktAbeɛɛed aluganAẓar amkuẓ n tavaryans; ameccaq n umata gar ugmuḍ d wazal yettwaṛǧan.Ɣer akk → √(200 × (1/37) × (36/37)) ≈ 2,3. Agraw n 95% d qrib 1 ɣer 10.
Ayen i yettkellif yilem i umurar s lexlaṣ imsawi
Yal ilem yettkellif yiwen udrim n rrehn, yerna ilmawen d lmaziyya akk ɣef uzeggaɣrrehnAzeggaɣRrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi ɣef 18 n wuṭṭunen izeggaɣen. S tefransist: rouge.Ɣer akk →: deg 37 n tuzzyiwin s ulemmas, 18 n yirbaḥen d 18 n lexsarat msefsayen, ilem-nni d −1/37. Deg teɣimit n 200 n tuzzyiwin s $10, 5,4 n yilmawen yettwaṛǧan kellfen $54, d 200 × $10 / 37 s timmad-is. Taɣimit s 2 n yilmawen tesɛa $34 n zzher yelhan; taɣimit s 9 n yilmawen tesɛa $36 n zzher n diri, ad tettban tettwaɣecceḍ. Ɣef ṭṭabla s la partagealugenLa partageAlugen afransis: mi ara d-yeffeɣ yilem, azgen n rrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi yettuɣal-d. Yessenqas lmaziyya n lkazinu ɣef rrhun-a ɣer uzgen, d 1,35%.Ɣer akk → yal ilem yettkellif azgen n udrim, imḍanen ttwabḍan ɣef sin.
Alugen La Partage deg rulitRulit deg Internet tettwaɣecc? Lexrafa
Ayen d-iteddun
D acu i d taprubabilit n sin yilmawen yeṭṭafaren? (1/37)² = 1/1 369. Deg lkazinu s 20 n ṭṭwabel s 50 n tuzzyiwin deg tsaɛett, d qrib yiwet n tyuga n yilmawen yeṭṭafaren deg kra n umkan yal 1,4 n tsaɛtin. Imuraren i t-iwalan qqaren aḍebsi yerreẓ; leḥsab yeqqar d ass n ttlata kan.
Ɛerḍet-t
Asimulatur n teɣimit yettsiḍin ilmawen i yal taɣimit. Sselkmet 100 n tuzzyiwin kra n tmiḍiwin n tikkal, sunuɣet amḍan: ahistugram d-yezwaren ad d-iban, s ujeḥnuḍ-is aɣezfan ɣer uyeffus. Ajeḥnuḍ d anida i d-ttasent tiqsiḍin.
Tasemselt
Isteqsiyen
Mačči ɣef uḍebsi imsawi. Ɣef uḍebsi s umyaltanaritAḍebsi s umyalAḍebsi i deg ara xedmen yixeṣṣaṣen-is n lǧessa kra n texxamin ad d-ffɣent ugar n 1/37. D ayen yettwaxeṣṣren, ur yettwaf ara ala s yigiman n tuzzyiwin yettwarun.Ɣer akk → yal taxxamtibenkanTaxxamtYiwet seg 37 n texxamin s wuṭṭunen ɣef uqerru yettezzin. Daɣen: slot, cup.Ɣer akk → tezmer, yerna ad yesra igiman n tuzzyiwin akken ad yettwassen.
D rrehn n 2,70% am wiyaḍ akk. Ibeddel udem n teɣimit (ilem yuɣal d rrbeḥ), mačči ssuma.
Acku abeṭṭu n yiraǧuten yemyal: aṭas n yiraǧuten iwezlanen, kra iɣezfanen aṭas.
Taḍsa i usgunfu
Alemmas 37, azal n tlemmast 25, d ujeḥnuḍ aɣezfan anda tettidir tmucuha.
Iɣbula
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.