Asurif s usurif: tameddit D’Alembert
Yiwen uferdis ugar deffir lexsara, yiwen uferdis drus deffir rrbeḥ, azeggaɣ deg yal tuzzya ɣef timiḍi n tuzzyiwin. Anagraw aḥnin akk, d wacḥal i yettkellif leḥnana-s.
Taɣimit D’Alembert yettwasimulin n 100 n tuzzyiwin s $5 i uferdis. Adrim n rrehn yuɣal ɣer $5 semmus n tikkal, yuli cwiṭ s cwiṭ ɣer $80 deg yiwen n wakud n diri, yekfa ɣef $55 s lexsara n $40 deg teɣimit. Anagraw i yettbanen d lmizan, maca mačči d lmizan.
Ḍfer anagraw
Lexsara tessali yiwet n tseddart. Rrbeḥ yessuɣal yiwet n tseddart ɣer deffir.
Rrhun d yigmaḍ s yiferdisen n rrehn n tazwara.
Aɣawas
Bdut s yiwen uferdisidrimenAferdisRrehn agejdan s wacu i yettxeddem unagraw neɣ amurar. Inagrawen n usnerni ttwaglamen s yiferdisen akken ad ilin i yal ṭṭabla.Ɣer akk →, $5, ɣef uzeggaɣrrehnAzeggaɣRrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi ɣef 18 n wuṭṭunen izeggaɣen. S tefransist: rouge.Ɣer akk →. Deffir lexsara rnut aferdis; deffir rrbeḥ kkset yiwen, maca werǧin ddaw yiwen. Tamuɣli, ur d-yessumer ara d’Alembert maca ttaken-as lɣelṭ-is, d akken irbaḥen d lexsarat ad msawin, ihi i yal tayuga n yiwet n lexsara d yiwen n rrbeḥ ad nerbeḥ aferdis. Leḥsab yeqqar belli azeggaɣ yettarbaḥ 48,65% n tuzzyiwin, ihi lexsarat ugtent ɣef yirbaḥen s qrib yiwet seg ṛebɛin, yerna adrim n rrehn yettali cwiṭ s cwiṭ s wakud.
Tuzzyiwin 1–30
Arbaṭac n uzeggaɣ, xmesṭac n uberkanrrehnAberkanRrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi ɣef 18 n wuṭṭunen iberkanen. S tefransist: noir.Ɣer akk →, yiwen yilemaḍebsiIlemTaxxamt tazegzawt tasuft ur yeṭṭif ula d yiwen n rrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi, n ddzina neɣ n tgejdit; d aɣbalu n lmaziyya n lkazinu. Daɣen: yiwen yilem, 0.Ɣer akk →. Adrim n rrehn yuli ɣer $20 deg wazrar n kraḍ n lexsarat, yuɣal ɣer $5 deg tuzzya 18, yuli ɣer $25 deg taggara n tallit-a. Ačuran +$20. Yal tayuga n lexsara d rrbeḥ terbeḥ aferdis akken i d-qqaren; lexsarat timernanin ččant-ten. Yettban am tṛumbit i yetteddun s ttawil, i yetteddun s waṭas.
Tuzzyiwin 31–65
Akud n diri. Tlaṭṭac n uzeggaɣ mgal tnayen u ɛecrin ur nelli d azeggaɣ, gar-asen azrar n sebɛa n lexsarat. Seg $5 deg tuzzya 41, adrim n rrehn yuli aferdis s uferdis alamma d $80, yerna yal lexsara n $75 tekkes xmesṭac seg yirbaḥen n $5 yezwaren. Ačuran −$485 i tallit-a; leḥsab amatu −$465. Ulac ayen yesweḥcen i yeḍran deg yiwet n tuzzya; d asali cwiṭ s cwiṭ i yexdmen ayagi.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- azal n tlemmast −$500
- p75 −$500
- p90 +$885
Tuzzyiwin 66–100
Ɛecrin n uzeggaɣ mgal xmesṭac ur nelli d azeggaɣ, adrim n rrehn yettṣubbu seg $80 ɣer $55 s tikli n $5. Yal rrbeḥ s udrim meqqren yerra-d idrimen n tidet: rrbeḥ n $75 deffir lexsara n $70 d tayuga i yerbeḥen +$5, maca tayuga-nni d tameqqrant. Ačuran +$425 i tallit-a; aneggaru −$40.
Leḥsabat
Alemmas n udrim n rrehn qrib $37, ihi amḍan n rrhun meṛṛa qrib $3 670 mgal $500 i umurar i yettrehnen $5 ur nettbeddil. Lexsara yettwaṛǧantusnaktLexsara yettwaṛǧanAzal yettwaṛǧan seg tmerna n yidrimen yettwarhen; d alemmas n wayen yettwaxsar deg yiwet n tɣimit neɣ deg yiwen wakud.Ɣer akk → ɣef $3 670 d $99; tin n tidet −$40, ddaw yiwen ubeɛɛed alugantusnaktAbeɛɛed aluganAẓar amkuẓ n tavaryans; ameccaq n umata gar ugmuḍ d wazal yettwaṛǧan.Ɣer akk →. Asali n tiddi n rrhun d ayen kan i yexdem unagraw: ugar n yedrimen ɣef ṭṭabla, yiwet n 2,70% tettwakkes seg yal adular, abeṭṭu n yigmaḍ yettwaseɛrḍen ugar.
Ayen i d-tesken teɣimit
D’Alembert d tuccḍa n umqemmer yettwarun am ulugen n rrhun: yettɣil belli irbaḥen d lexsarat ad msawin zik akken adrim n rrehn ad d-iṣubb. Msawan deg uɣawas aɣezfan s usfesi, mačči s useɣti, yerna adrim n rrehn ulac ayɣer ara yuɣal ɣer yiwen uferdis. D anagraw yetteddun s ttawil war aɣelluy, d ttawil-a i yerran imuraren ad umnen yis-s.
Amlili deg uɣawas aɣezfan: alugen n wuṭṭunen imeqqranen deg rulit
Isteqsiyen
Qlil. Adrim n rrehn yettnerni s yiwen uferdis i yal lexsara, mačči s sin, ihi ilaq azrar n diri aɣezfan aṭas akken ad yaweḍ ɣer talast.
Ih, talast-nni ad t-terr d rrehn ur nettbeddiltastratijitRrehn ur nettbeddilRrehn n yiwen wazal deg yal tuzzya. D aswir ɣer wacu i yettwaserwas yal anagraw n usnerni.Ɣer akk → ɣef talast deffir wazrar n diri. Yal talast tṣeḥḥa; ula d yiwet ur tbeddel lmaziyya.
Deg 1754 yenna-d belli yiwen wudem n uṣurdi yettuɣal ugar s taprubabilit deffir wazrar n wudem wayeḍ. Imqemmren i yeqbelen ayagi semman anagraw s yisem-is. Tili yesteḥya.
Taḍsa i usgunfu
Anagraw aḥnin akk. Yettali cwiṭ s cwiṭ deg umkan n uɣelluy.
Iɣbula
- d’Alembert, J. “Croix ou pile.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.