Asurif s usurif · Asurif s usurif · 7 tsd

Asurif s usurif: azrar Paroli

Mraw n yidularen ɣef uberkan, s sin deffir yal rrbeḥ, ttwaḥerzen deffir kraḍ yeṭṭafaren. Martingale tamettiwt, tuzzya s tuzzya.

Tiririt tawezlant

Taɣimit Paroli yettwasimulin n 80 n tuzzyiwin. Tlaṭṭac n lexsarat deg tuzzya tamezwarut, ukkuẓ u ɛecrin n yizrar yerrẓen d kraḍ n tkerḍiwin yekfan i yexellṣen $70 yal yiwet. Ačuran −$160 deffir mi tella deg +$50. Anagraw i yettxesren s waṭas, yettarbaḥen qlil, s udem i d-yenna leḥsab.

rrehn n tazwara
$10 ɣef uberkan
iswi
3 n yirbaḥen yeṭṭafaren
p(takerḍit)
11,5%
ačuran i yal takerḍit
+$70

Ḍfer anagraw

Rrbeḥ yesseddu yiwet n tseddart ɣer zdat. Lexsara, neɣ rrbeḥ wis kraḍ, yettuɣal ɣer tazwara.

124Rrbeḥ
rrehn d-iteddun1agmuḍ ar tura0tuzzyiwin0

Rrhun d yigmaḍ s yiferdisen n rrehn n tazwara.

Aɣawas

Rhent $10 ɣef uberkanrrehnAberkanRrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi ɣef 18 n wuṭṭunen iberkanen. S tefransist: noir.Ɣer akk →. Deffir rrbeḥ, eǧǧet $20 ad qqimen. Deffir rrbeḥ wis sin, eǧǧet $40 ad qqimen. Deffir rrbeḥ wis kraḍ, kkset $80, bdut tikkelt nniḍen s $10. Yal lexsara anda tella tettuɣal ɣer $10. Yal aneɛruḍ yettɣamar s $10 seg yedrimen-nneɣ, yettarbaḥ $70 ma yella uberkan yusa-d kraḍ n tikkal yeṭṭafaren, ayen yeḍrun (18/37)³ = 11,5% n wakud. Nettraǧu qrib yiwen wazrar yekfan deg tẓa n yineɛruḍen.

Tuzzyiwin 1–25

Z B B Z Z B Z B B Z B B Z Z B Z 0 B B B B Z B B Z. Tnac n yineɛruḍen: ukkuẓ xesren deg tuzzya tamezwarut (−$10 yal yiwen, yiwen seg-sen ɣef yilemaḍebsiIlemTaxxamt tazegzawt tasuft ur yeṭṭif ula d yiwen n rrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi, n ddzina neɣ n tgejdit; d aɣbalu n lmaziyya n lkazinu. Daɣen: yiwen yilem, 0.Ɣer akk →), kraḍ xesren deg tuzzya tis snat (−$10 yal yiwen, acku $20 llan d idrimen n lkazinu rnu wayla-nneɣ), ukkuẓ xesren deg tuzzya tis kraḍ (−$10 yal yiwen, akken daɣen), yiwet n tkerḍit tekfa deg tuzzyiwin 18–20 (+$70). Ačuran −$40. Azrar yekfan yettban d abeggen. Ḥdac n yineɛruḍen yexsren ttbanen d ulac, d wagi i d iswi n tɣessa.

aneɛruḍamyizwerrrhunačuran
1Z10−$10
2B B Z10, 20, 40−$10
3Z10−$10
4B Z10, 20−$10
5B B Z10, 20, 40−$10
6–9B B Z · Z · B Z · 0≤ 40−$40
10B B B10, 20, 40 → $80 ttwaḥerzen+$70
11–12B Z · B B Z≤ 40−$20
deffir 25 n tuzzyiwin12 n yineɛruḍen, 1 n tkerḍit−$40
Yiwet n tkerḍit yekfan tettban d abeggen; ḥdac n yijiṭunen yexsren deg ubrid ttbanen d ulac.

Tuzzyiwin 26–55

Snat n tkerḍiwin nniḍen, deg tuzzyiwin 28–30 d 37–39, yal yiwet d aḥric seg wazrar n ukkuẓ n uberkan i neḥrez deffir kraḍ: aberkan wis ukkuẓ yerbeḥ $10 imaynuten, azeggaɣrrehnAzeggaɣRrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi ɣef 18 n wuṭṭunen izeggaɣen. S tefransist: rouge.Ɣer akk → d-iteddun yewwi $20. Xmesṭac n yineɛruḍen, ačuran i tallit-a +$10; leḥsab amatu −$30; taqacuct +$50 deg tuzzya 39. Kraḍ n tkerḍiwin deg 27 n yineɛruḍen d 3,1 yettwaṛǧan; deg tqacuct taɣimit tella deg +$50, tettban d tarrayt.

Taɣimit-a d tẓa nniḍen am nettatagmuḍ mgal tazwara
+$980$0−$1 000+$400−$5000125250375500tuzzyiwinagmuḍ
1 000 n tɣimiyin × 500 n tuzzyiwin · amidadi p10/p25/p75/p90, anili afsas azal n tlemmast, 82 n yimedyaten ifsasen · sekcmet taɣerdayt deg udlif i yiswiren n yal tuzzya
  • p10 −$780
  • p25 −$510
  • azal n tlemmast −$210
  • p75 +$90
  • p90 +$370
1 000 n tɣimiyin × 500 n tuzzyiwin · agellus y yettwagzem ɣer yiswiren 1–99 (seg uzal amecṭuḥ akk −$1 000 ar umeqqran akk +$1 570) · 500 n tuzzyiwin · tazwara $10 · lexlaṣ imsawi
Aṭas n yijerriḍen ttṣubbun s ttawil s tikliwin n $10, ttneggizen s $70 seg wakud ɣer wayeḍ. Alemmas n mraw-nni d alemmas n umurar s rrehn ur nettbeddil: −2,70% n wayen akk yettwarehnen.

Tuzzyiwin 56–80

Tlaṭṭac n yineɛruḍen yexsren yeṭṭafaren, tẓa seg-sen deg tuzzya tis snat neɣ tis kraḍ anda azrar yekfa ixuṣṣ-it yiwen neɣ sin n uberkan. Ačuran −$130 i tallit-a; aneggaru −$160. Azrar-a n lexsarat yesɛa taprubabilittusnaktTaprubabilitAzal n yiwen ugmuḍ ad d-yeḍru, seg 0 ɣer 1 neɣ seg 0% ɣer 100%. Yiwen wuṭṭun: 1/37 = 2,70%.Ɣer akk → n qrib 20%, d akken ad yeḍru i umurar n ParolitastratijitParoliAsnerni deffir rrbeḥ: snegmu deffir rrbeḥ, wennez deffir lexsara neɣ deffir kraḍ n rrbeḥ yemmeḍfaren. Daɣen: Martingale tamettiwt.Ɣer akk → qrib yal taɣimit tis semmus s teɣzi-a.

Leḥsabat

Amḍan n rrhun meṛṛa $1 460 deg 80 n tuzzyiwin mgal $800 i umurar s $10 ur nettbeddil: tuɣalin n rrhun tettarnu amḍan n rrhun meṛṛaidrimenAmḍan n rrhun meṛṛaTamerna n yidrimen yettwarhen deg yiwet n tɣimit neɣ deg yiwen wakud, s rrbeḥ i yettuɣalen yettwarhen. Daɣen: handle, action.Ɣer akk →. Lexsara yettwaṛǧantusnaktLexsara yettwaṛǧanAzal yettwaṛǧan seg tmerna n yidrimen yettwarhen; d alemmas n wayen yettwaxsar deg yiwet n tɣimit neɣ deg yiwen wakud.Ɣer akk → ɣef $1 460 d $39; tin n tidet −$160 ddaw yiwen ubeɛɛed alugantusnaktAbeɛɛed aluganAẓar amkuẓ n tavaryans; ameccaq n umata gar ugmuḍ d wazal yettwaṛǧan.Ɣer akk →, ur tesweḥcay ara. Amurar s rrehn ur nettbeddil i yellan ɣer tama-nneɣ yesɛa yiwen wazal yettwaṛǧan i yal adular d ugmuḍ s qrib azgen n ubeddel.

Tastratijit n rrehn ur nettbeddil

Ayen i d-tesken teɣimit

Paroli d MartingaletastratijitMartingaleAnagraw n usnerni i yessneggmen rrehn deffir yal lexsara. Walit taggayt n tstratijit i wayen i yettxemmem d wayen ur yettxemmim ara.Ɣer akk → yettwaqelben: tettxesser yiwen uferdisidrimenAferdisRrehn agejdan s wacu i yettxeddem unagraw neɣ amurar. Inagrawen n usnerni ttwaglamen s yiferdisen akken ad ilin i yal ṭṭabla.Ɣer akk → tugget n wakud, tettarbaḥ sa n yiferdisen seg wakud ɣer wayeḍ, deg umkan ad terbeḥ yiwen uferdis tugget n wakud, ad texser kraḍ u sḍatin seg wakud ɣer wayeḍ. Abeṭṭu ur yesɛi ara aṭas n lxeṭṛ acku amḍan ameqqran d rrbeḥ, mačči d lexsara, yerna rrehn werǧin yezgir $40, seg-sen $10 kan i d ayla-nneɣ. Lexsara yettwaṛǧan i yal adular ur tbeddel ara. D anagraw ifazen i umurar i yebɣan tavaryanstusnaktTavaryansAktazal n wamek i d-ttwazzaren igmaḍ i tama n wazal yettwaṛǧan. Meqqret i rrehn ɣef yiwen wuṭṭun, meẓẓiyet i rrhun s lexlaṣ imsawi.Ɣer akk → war aɣelluy, yerna yettkellif yal tikkelt 2,70% n umḍan n rrhun meṛṛa.

Isteqsiyen

Ayɣer ad ḥerzeɣ deffir kraḍ mačči ukkuẓ?

Ukkuẓ yeṭṭafaren d 5,6%, ixelleṣ $150. Iswi d lebɣi kan; lmaziyya d yiwet i yal iswi.

Idrimen n lkazinu d ayla n lkazinu s tidet?

Ala. Deffir yiwen n rrbeḥ, $20 yellan ɣef ṭṭabla d ayla-nwen. Paroli tettban terxes acku lexsara n wazrar ur tettban ara am lexsara n yedrimen-nwen. Maca d nettat.

Paroli ifaz Martingale?

Yiwen wazal yettwaṛǧan, rrehn ameqqran akk d amecṭuḥ, ulac aɣelluy ɣef talast n ṭṭabla. Ifaz deg yal tama ala deg tin i yesɛan azal, ur nbeddel ara.

Taḍsa i usgunfu

Lexsara tamecṭuḥt s waṭas, rrbeḥ ameqqran qlil. D aqelleb n Martingale, s yiwet n ssuma.

Lexsara tamecṭuḥt s waṭas, rrbeḥ ameqqran qlil. D aqelleb n Martingale, s yiwet n ssuma.

Iɣbula

  1. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Ixef 13, rulit.
yettwasenqed 2026-09-28tamudemt: tawrupit, yiwen yilemtarrayt ↗iɣbula ↗