Tastratijit Paroli (Martingale tamettiwt)

Amek yeddu unagraw Paroli n rulit?

Rhent yiwen uferdisidrimenAferdisRrehn agejdan s wacu i yettxeddem unagraw neɣ amurar. Inagrawen n usnerni ttwaglamen s yiferdisen akken ad ilin i yal ṭṭabla.Ɣer akk →. Ma trebḥem, ǧǧet-t akk ɣef ṭṭabla: rrehn i d-iteddun d sin. Rebḥet tikkelt nniḍen, ad yili d ukkuẓ. Rebḥet tikkelt tis kraḍ, ṭṭfet sa n yiferdisen n rrbeḥ u uɣalet ɣer yiwen. Ma texsrem melmi yebɣu yili, ad tuɣalem daɣen ɣer yiwen. D wa i d anagraw meṛṛa. Deffir rrbeḥ amezwaru terhnem s rrbeḥ, ihi ayen akk yezmer ad yexser ugerrujidrimenAgerrujAkk idrimen yettwaǧǧan i wurar. Asefrek n ugerruj d tagrut: acḥal seg-s ara tesrem i yal rrehn d yal taɣimit.Ɣer akk →-nwen deg yal tunnḍa d yiwen uferdis. Kraḍ n rrbeḥ s lexlaṣ imsawi yemmeḍfaren ttilin s taprubabilittusnaktTaprubabilitAzal n yiwen ugmuḍ ad d-yeḍru, seg 0 ɣer 1 neɣ seg 0% ɣer 100%. Yiwen wuṭṭun: 1/37 = 2,70%.Ɣer akk → n (18/37)³ = 11,5%, azal n yiwet n tunnḍa seg tẓa.

Amek tettban taɣimit?

Aqḍar s ttawil, s tneggizt tikwal. Xemmet ɣef uqḍu n yiwet n tikiṭ tamecṭuḥt tikkelt deffir tayeḍ: yal yiwet tettkellif yiwen uferdis, ugar-nsent ulac deg-sent, u azal n yiwet seg tẓa txelleṣ sa. Taprubabilit n tagara n tɣimit n 100 n tuzzyiwin s rrbeḥ d tamecṭuḥt (azal n 30%) acku ugar n tɣimiyin ur sɛint ara aṭas n tunnḍiwin yekfan akken ad d-rrent lexsarat n yiwen uferdis yettkemmilen; mi ara tekfu tɣimit s rrbeḥ, s waṭas tettekfu s rrbeḥ ameqqran.

Anagraw Paroli yeddu?

Ala. Ibeddel talɣa n lexsarat, mačči tiddi-nsent. Ad yili p = 18/37. Rbeḥ 7 s taprubabilit p³ = 0,115; xser 1 s taprubabilit 1 − p³ = 0,885. Agmuḍ yettwaṛǧan i yal tunnḍa: 7(0,115) − 1(0,885) = 0,805 − 0,885 = −0,08 n yiferdisen. Iferdisen yettwaṛǧan yettwarehnen i yal tunnḍa: 1 + 2p + 4p² = 1 + 0,973 + 0,947 = 2,92. Bḍut: −0,08 / 2,92 = −2,7%. Yal anagraw yettak-d amḍan-a mi ara texdmem abeṭṭu.

Tikti i yesseɣwayen d belli ijiṭunenidrimenAjiṭunTamatart i d-yemmalen azal yettwasbedden, yettwasersen ɣef tfelwit akken ad yili rrehn. Daɣen: check.Ɣer akk → yettwaǧǧan ɣef ṭṭabla d idrimen n lkazinu, ihi rrehn yis-sen ur yettkellif acemma. Nwen-ten seg wasmi ttwaxelṣen, u yal yiwen i d-yuɣalen ɣef ṭṭabla yesɛa yiwen 2,70%-nni.

Ma terǧam ukkuẓ n rrbeḥ yemmeḍfaren?

ParolitastratijitParoliAsnerni deffir rrbeḥ: snegmu deffir rrbeḥ, wennez deffir lexsara neɣ deffir kraḍ n rrbeḥ yemmeḍfaren. Daɣen: Martingale tamettiwt.Ɣer akk → ar ukkuẓ n rrbeḥ yerra yiwen uferdis d 16, rrbeḥ n 15, s taprubabilit n (18/37)⁴ = 5,6%. Taylor (2021) yesteqsa asteqsi yugar: s ugerruj n kra n yiferdisen, d acu i d taprubabilit n wawaḍ ɣer yiwen uzrar am wa uqbel ad yekfu ugerruj? Yal tunnḍa ur nerbiḥ tettkellif yiwen uferdis kan, ihi s 15 n yiferdisen tiririt d 1 − (1 − 0,056)¹⁵ = 58%, ugar n 48,6% n userser n 15 akk ɣef uzeggaɣrrehnAzeggaɣRrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi ɣef 18 n wuṭṭunen izeggaɣen. S tefransist: rouge.Ɣer akk → yiwet n tikkelt. Ugur yettban deg wuṭṭunen nniḍen. Azrar s waṭas yettas-d deffir kra n tunnḍiwin ur nerbiḥ, ihi rrbeḥ mi ara d-yas d azal n 9 n yiferdisen s ulemmas, mačči 15, u acku anagraw n usnernitastratijitAnagraw n usnerniYal alugen i yettbeddilen rrehn ɣef leḥsab n yigmaḍ yezrin. Asnerni deffir lexsara yessali-t deffir lexsara, asnerni deffir rrbeḥ deffir rrbeḥ.Ɣer akk → yessers ugar s umata, agmuḍ-is s ulemmas yir ugar n win n yiwen n rrehn.

Yesɛa azal anda ara teḥbsem?

Kan i talɣa. Paroli ar sin n rrbeḥ (ṭṭfet 3) neɣ ar ukkuẓ n rrbeḥ (ṭṭfet 15) ibeddel aswir n wawaḍ d urraz, mačči lmaziyya. «Parlay» ɣef rrehn ɣef yiwen wuṭṭun (ǧǧet rrbeḥ n 35 ɣef 1 ad yeqqim) d yiwet n tikti s p = 1/37 d lexlaṣidrimenLexlaṣAyen i d-yettak rrehn i yerbḥen, yettwanna «X ɣef 1» nnig rrehn i d-yettuɣalen.Ɣer akk → n 1 295 ɣef 1 ɣef sin n wawaḍen yemmeḍfaren, d ayen i t-yerran s waṭas d tamacahut mačči d ayen yettwaxdamen.

Anwa i t-yettextiren, u acuɣer?

Imuraren i yebɣan lexsara tameqqrant i yal tunnḍa yettwasbadun u tamecṭuḥt, u qeblen ad xesren s leɛqel i taprubabilit n rrbeḥ ameqqran. D lemri n tsnafsit n MartingaletastratijitMartingaleAnagraw n usnerni i yessneggmen rrehn deffir yal lexsara. Walit taggayt n tstratijit i wayen i yettxemmem d wayen ur yettxemmim ara.Ɣer akk →: Martingale yettarra-kun ad tḥulfum d wid yettrebḥen alamma d iḍ ideg ur tettrebḥem ara; Paroli yettarra-kun ad tḥulfum d wid yettxesren alamma d iḍ ideg ur tettxesrem ara. Lkazinu teṭṭef 2,70% n umḍan n rrhun meṛṛaidrimenAmḍan n rrhun meṛṛaTamerna n yidrimen yettwarhen deg yiwet n tɣimit neɣ deg yiwen wakud, s rrbeḥ i yettuɣalen yettwarhen. Daɣen: handle, action.Ɣer akk → deg sin-nni.

Asimulatur · Paroli

2 000 n tɣimiyin n rrhun s lexlaṣ imsawi, s ugerruj n $1 000.

Rrehn n tazwara $10 · talast n ṭṭabla $500 · 100 n tuzzyiwin i yal taɣimit

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