Tastratijit Andrucci
Walit aḍebsi kra n wakud, afet-d uṭṭun i d-yeffɣen ugar, sakin rhent fell-as. Yettban am unadi ɣef uḍebsi s umyal; uṭṭunen qqaren mačči akka.
Yal aḍebsi yesskan-d uṭṭun «yeḥman» deffir 37 n tuzzyiwin, s umyal neɣ war amyal: uṭṭun i d-yeffɣen ugar yeffeɣ-d s umata kraḍ neɣ ukkuẓ n tikkal s zzher kan. Rrehn fell-as ɣef yiwen wuṭṭun deg 37 n tuzzyiwin i d-iteddun yesqam 2,70% n yal ajiṭunidrimenAjiṭunTamatart i d-yemmalen azal yettwasbedden, yettwasersen ɣef tfelwit akken ad yili rrehn. Daɣen: check.Ɣer akk →, am yal uṭṭun nniḍen, ula ɣef uḍebsi s umyal n tidet, tamuɣli n 37 n tuzzyiwin tettaf-d taxxamt n umyal azal n yiwet n tikkelt seg ɛecrin kan.
Amek i yettwurar unagraw Andrucci?
Arut yal agmuḍ deg 30 ɣer 37 n tuzzyiwin, s rrhun imeẓyanen ɣef rrhun s lexlaṣ imsawi deg lawan-a neɣ war rrehn akk. Fernet uṭṭun i d-yeffɣen ugar. Sakin rhent yiwen uferdisidrimenAferdisRrehn agejdan s wacu i yettxeddem unagraw neɣ amurar. Inagrawen n usnerni ttwaglamen s yiferdisen akken ad ilin i yal ṭṭabla.Ɣer akk → ɣef yiwen wuṭṭunrrehnYiwen wuṭṭunYiwen wuṭṭun kan, ixelleṣ 35:1.Ɣer akk → fell-as azal n wayen-nni n tuzzyiwin tikkelt nniḍen. Kra n tferkiwin ttḍafarent sin neɣ kraḍ n wuṭṭunen yeḥmanlexrafaUṭṭun yeḥmanUṭṭun i d-yeffɣen ugar n wayen yettwaṛǧan melmi kan. Ɣef uḍebsi imsawi ur d-yettbeggin acemma.Ɣer akk →, kra ttbeddilent ɣer wuṭṭun i yezwaren deg umḍan mi ara iteddu wurar. Isem ur yesɛi ara amezruy iɣef ara tettekklem: idlisen n uwelleh qqaren d amurar n Las Vegas n yiseggasen n 1970, d amussnaw n tdaddanin n Ṭelyan neɣ ulac akk, ula d yiwen ur d-yefki aɣbalu.
Acimi yal aḍebsi yesɛa uṭṭun yeḥman?
Deg 37 n tuzzyiwin n uḍebsi war amyal, yal uṭṭun yettban-d yiwet n tikkelt s ulemmas, maca tuzzyiwin ur ttwabḍant ara s wudem imsawi. Uṭṭun i d-yeffɣen ugar yeffeɣ-d kraḍ n tikkal kan deg 47% n tirmiyin-a, ukkuẓ n tikkal kan deg 40%, semmus n tikkal neɣ ugar deg 11%. Amḍan n ukkuẓ neɣ ugar deg 37 n tuzzyiwin yettban am talɣa, ma d zzher weḥd-s yettawi-d yiwet yal yiḍ ɣef sin.
Acu i d-yettak umecwar n rrhun?
Mi ara yekfu usekyed, anagraw d rrehn ɣef yiwen wuṭṭun yettwararen 37 n tikkal. Uṭṭun yettwafernen yettrebbiḥ s taprubabilit n 1/37 deg yal tuzzya, am yal uṭṭun. Ur yeffeɣ ara deg 37 n tuzzyiwin meṛṛa deg 36,3% n tɣimiyin, i −37 n yiferdisen; yeffeɣ-d yiwet n tikkelt deg 37,3%, i −1; yeffeɣ-d snat n tikkal neɣ ugar deg 26,4%, i +35 n yiferdisen neɣ ugar. S ulemmas, taɣimit tettexsar 1 n uferdis ɣef yal 37 yettwarhen: 2,70%.
Ma yella aḍebsi s umyal s tidet?
Imuraren i yettnadin ɣef uḍebsi s umyaltanaritAḍebsi s umyalAḍebsi i deg ara xedmen yixeṣṣaṣen-is n lǧessa kra n texxamin ad d-ffɣent ugar n 1/37. D ayen yettwaxeṣṣren, ur yettwaf ara ala s yigiman n tuzzyiwin yettwarun.Ɣer akk → ttnadin s tidet ɣef wuṭṭun i d-yeffɣen aṭas, maca ḥessben igiman n tuzzyiwin, mačči 37. Ad nini yiwet n texxamtibenkanTaxxamtYiwet seg 37 n texxamin s wuṭṭunen ɣef uqerru yettezzin. Daɣen: slot, cup.Ɣer akk → teffeɣ-d yiwet n tikkelt deg 30 n tuzzyiwin deg wadeg n yiwet deg 37: d amyal ameqqran, yesɛa azal n +20% i win ara yerhen fell-as. Tamuɣli n 37 n tuzzyiwin tettafren taxxamt-nni am tin i d-yeffɣen ugar azal n 4,7% n tikkal kan, mgal 2,7% i ufran s ddreɣ, acku kra n rrbeḥ-is nniḍen ttruḥun war ma banen deg uhuzzu n tegnit. S ulemmas ɣef yal ayen i tettafren tmuɣli, Andrucci ɣef uḍebsi-nni yettexsar ula d netta azal n 2,2% n rrehn-is. Akken ad d-tafem amyal n tiddi-a s tɣawsa iɣef ara tettekklem, ilaq kra n yigiman n tuzzyiwin.
Acimi yettɛeǧǧib?
Yeṛḍel tutlayt n unadi n tidet ɣef umyal, tikkwal tin n tiẓri n uxerwed, yettak i umurar ayen ara yexdem mi ara yezzi uḍebsi. Lfayda-s tasuft d rrehn ur nettbeddil: ur yettrehin ara ugar n wayen yettrehin yal amurar nniḍen ɣef yiwen wuṭṭun, ihi ur yettexsar ara s zzerba ugar-is.
Isteqsiyen
Ala. Ɣef uḍebsi war amyal, uṭṭun yeḥman d uṭṭun am wiyaḍ, yal ajiṭun fell-as yesqam 2,70%.
Deg ssuma, ih. Aḍfar n wuṭṭun yeḥman d uraǧu n wuṭṭun asemmaḍ «yeɛṭlen» d yiwen n rrehn ɣef yiwen wuṭṭun s yiwet n ssuma.
Igiman. Walit Amek ara d-naf amyal n uḍebsi d Tiddi n tegrumma.
Urar s tusnakt
Ɛerḍet-tent s yiman-nwen qbel. Yal tifrat tettwaffer; ldit-tt mi ara tilim twejdem.
Deffir 37 n tuzzyiwin, tawriqt-nwen tesskan-d belli 23 yeffeɣ-d semmus n tikkal. Acḥal d ayen ur nettili ara i 23 s yiman-is? D acḥal d ayen ur nettili ara i wuṭṭun i d-yeffɣen aṭas akk deg 37-nni n tuzzyiwin ad yesɛu semmus neɣ ugar?
Sken-d tifrat
Tiririt I 23 yettwasemman zik, semmus n tuɣliwin neɣ ugar deg 37 n tuzzyiwin ttilint qrib yiwet n tikkelt deg 327 n yizrar. I wuṭṭun akken yebɣu yili i d-yeffɣen aṭas akk, qrib yiwen uzrar deg tẓa. Wis sin d asteqsi i wumi d-terra s tidet tewriqt.
I yiwen wuṭṭun yettwasemman, tuɣliwin deg 37 n tuzzyiwin ḍefrent abeṭṭu abinumyal s tprubabilit n 1/37 i yal tuzzya. Taprubabilit n 0, 1, 2, 3 d 4 n tuɣliwin temrennu d 99,69%, ihi semmus neɣ ugar d 0,31%, qrib 1 seg 327.
Maca ulac win isemman 23 qbel tuzzyiwin; yettwafren acku d netta i d-yeffɣen aṭas. S 37 n wuṭṭunen i yettemsizzlen, ad yaweḍ yiwen seg-sen ɣer semmus yezmer ugar aṭas: qrib 11% n yizrar n 37 n tuzzyiwin, s tsimulasyunt-nneɣ (walit tafelwit nnig-a).
Ihi amḍan n semmus d taɛjubt i wuṭṭun i tefrenem zik u d ayen n yal ass i win yezwaren deg leḥsab. Rrehn ɣef win yezwaren deffir-s d rrehn ɣef yiwen wuṭṭunrrehnYiwen wuṭṭunYiwen wuṭṭun kan, ixelleṣ 35:1.Ɣer akk → am wiyaḍ, s 2,70%.
Taḍsa i usgunfu
Yal aḍebsi yesɛa uṭṭun yeḥman. Akka i yettban uxerwed.
Iɣbula
- RouletteDoc. Aglam n tstratijit d imedyaten.
- Roulette77. Aglam n tstratijit d imedyaten.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Barnhart, R. T. Beating the Wheel.