Ifecka · Tamsiḍent

Tamsiḍent n lxeṭṛ n uɣelluy

Taprubabilit ad yaweḍ umurar ɣer yiswi n rrbeḥ qbel ad yexser agerruj, s rrehn ur nettbeddil ɣef lexlaṣ imsawi.

Agerruj
Rrehn
Iswi
awaḍ ɣer yiswi
24,6%
aɣelluy qbel
75,4%
iswi
+$250
iferdisen (a / b)
50 / 25
tuzzyiwin yettwaṛǧan ar taggara
1 168
EV n uɛraḍ
−$315,70
Taɣuri n ugmuḍ

Ma trehnem $10 yal tikkelt, tesɛam taprubabilit n 24,6% ad terrem $500 d $750 qbel ad yeɣli ugerruj. Rrhun imeqqranen ssalayen taprubabilit-a acku drus n tuzzyiwin d drus n tikkal ara txellṣem tabzert n 2,70%; maca ssnernayen ahuzzu. Ɛerḍet rrhun n $100 mgal rrhun n $5 akken ad twalim aya.

Tarrayt d tiwtilin
Aɣelluy n umqemmer s p = 18/37: P(iswi) = (1 − (q/p)ᵃ)/(1 − (q/p)ᵃ⁺ᵇ), a = agerruj/rrehn, b = iswi/rrehn. Tanzagt yettwaṛǧan a/(q−p) − (a+b)·P/(q−p). Rrhun ur nettbeddil s lexlaṣ imsawi kan.