Tistratijiyin n rrhun deg rulit · Urar s lexlaṣ imsawi · 7 tsd

Tastratijit azeggaɣ / aberkan

Ugar n yinagrawen bnan ɣef uzeggaɣ/aberkan acku d ayen iqerben akk ɣer uḍegger n uṣurdi ɣef ṭṭabla.

Tiririt tawezlant

Azeggaɣ yettrebḥ 48,65% n tuzzyiwin, mačči 50%. Yal tastratijit n uzeggaɣ/aberkan deg rulit i yettkalen ɣef wakken ad mṣadan sin yiniten tettemlal d umgired n 2,70% deg yal tuzzya.

p(azeggaɣ)
48,65%
p(10 n uzeggaɣ)
0,074%
lmaziyya
2,70%
s la partage
1,35%

Aḍfar n yizrar d umgal-nsen

Rrehn ɣef yini i yerbḥen tura («ḍfer azrar») neɣ ɣef yini i yexsren tura («yewweḍ-d lawan-is») sɛan yiwen wazal yettwaṛǧantusnaktAzal yettwaṛǧanAlemmas n ugmuḍ n yal rrehn deg uɣawas aɣezfan. −1/37 n rrehn i yal rrehn amagnu awrupi.Ɣer akk →: −2,70% n udrim n rrehn. Aḍebsi ur yessin ara ayen yexdem uqbel. Deg tɣimit taɣezfant, win yeṭṭafaren izrar d win ten-yettɛaraḍen ad sɛun imtawalen yemgaraden n rrbeḥ d lexsarat d yiwen ugmuḍ s ulemmas, acku yal rrehn i yessers yiwen deg-sen yesɛa 18/37 n rrbeḥ.

Taprubabilit n uzrar n k n uzeggaɣ ara yebdun tura%
1 yemmeḍfaren
48,65%
2 yemmeḍfaren
23,67%
3 yemmeḍfaren
11,51%
4 yemmeḍfaren
5,60%
5 yemmeḍfaren
2,72%
6 yemmeḍfaren
1,33%
7 yemmeḍfaren
0,645%
8 yemmeḍfaren
0,314%
9 yemmeḍfaren
0,153%
10 yemmeḍfaren
0,074%
%
024,3248,65%
(18/37)ᵏ i yiwen uzrar ara yebdun tura. Deg tɣimit taɣezfant, taprubabilit ad d-iban uzrar am wa deg kra n wadeg tugar s waṭas.
Yiwen umurar yeṭṭafar azrar, wayeḍ yettrehin mgal-is; yiwen uḍebsi yessutur seg sin-nni yiwet n ssuma.

Lexrafa: uṭṭunen yeɛṭlen

Ayen tesɛa taɣimit n 200 n tuzzyiwin

Azrar n semmus neɣ ugar n yiwen yini yettban-d deg kra n wadeg n tɣimit n 200 n tuzzyiwin azal n 95% n tikkal; azrar n tam neɣ ugar azal n 40% n tikkal; mraw neɣ ugar azal n 12%. Imuraren i yettrehnen mgal izrar ttemlilen d yizrar-a yal iḍ u cfan ɣef wid i ten-yerrẓen. Imuraren i yettrehnen akked yizrar cfan ɣef wid i ixelṣen. Sin-nni glemen-d yiwen uḍebsi.

azrar akk aɣezfan n yiwen yini deg 200 n tuzzyiwintaprubabilit ad d-iban
5 neɣ ugar≈ 95%
6 neɣ ugar≈ 75%
7 neɣ ugar≈ 55%
8 neɣ ugar≈ 40%
10 neɣ ugar≈ 12%
12 neɣ ugar≈ 3%
S uqerrib, seg tsimulasyunt ɣef uḍebsi n lḥeqq. Izrar iɣezfanen d ayen amagnu deg yimtawalen n zzher, ur d-sbeggnen acemma.

Tastratijit n yiniten deg rulit: inagrawen n usnerni d yilugan n ubeddel

Ayen akk yellan deg uḥric n Tistratijiyin yezmer ad yettwaxdem ɣef uzeggaɣrrehnAzeggaɣRrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi ɣef 18 n wuṭṭunen izeggaɣen. S tefransist: rouge.Ɣer akk →/aberkanrrehnAberkanRrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi ɣef 18 n wuṭṭunen iberkanen. S tefransist: noir.Ɣer akk →: MartingaletastratijitMartingaleAnagraw n usnerni i yessneggmen rrehn deffir yal lexsara. Walit taggayt n tstratijit i wayen i yettxemmem d wayen ur yettxemmim ara.Ɣer akk →, FibonaccitastratijitFibonacciAnagraw n usnerni i yeḍfaren umuɣ 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…: yiwen usurif ɣer zdat deffir lexsara, sin ɣer deffir deffir rrbeḥ.Ɣer akk →, D’Alembert, LabouchèretastratijitLabouchèreAnagraw n tukksa: aru ajerriḍ n wuṭṭunen, rhen s tmerna n sin yixfawen, kkes-iten deffir rrbeḥ, rnu adrim yexsren deffir lexsara.Ɣer akk →, ParolitastratijitParoliAsnerni deffir rrbeḥ: snegmu deffir rrbeḥ, wennez deffir lexsara neɣ deffir kraḍ n rrbeḥ yemmeḍfaren. Daɣen: Martingale tamettiwt.Ɣer akk →. Kra n yinagrawen rennun ilugan n yini am ubeddel n yini deffir snat n lexsarat neɣ rrehn ɣef yini i d-yettbanen drus deg ɛecrin n tuzzyiwin tineggura. Timernawin-a ur ssexsaren ara u ur nfiɛen ara; anagraw n usnernitastratijitAnagraw n usnerniYal alugen i yettbeddilen rrehn ɣef leḥsab n yigmaḍ yezrin. Asnerni deffir lexsara yessali-t deffir lexsara, asnerni deffir rrbeḥ deffir rrbeḥ.Ɣer akk → i yellan ddaw-sent i iwekkden talɣa n tɣimit, u lmaziyya i iwekkden alemmas-is.

Tastratijit FibonacciTastratijit Labouchère

Anda ara t-turarem

Ma tebɣam ad turarem rrhun s lexlaṣ imsawirrehnRrehn s lexlaṣ imsawiAzeggaɣ/aberkan, aryan/uyug, afellay/adday. 18 n wuṭṭunen, ixelleṣ 1:1.Ɣer akk →, ṭṭabla n la partagealugenLa partageAlugen afransis: mi ara d-yeffeɣ yilem, azgen n rrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi yettuɣal-d. Yessenqas lmaziyya n lkazinu ɣef rrhun-a ɣer uzgen, d 1,35%.Ɣer akk → neɣ n en prisonalugenEn prisonAlugen afransis: mi ara d-yeffeɣ yilem, rrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi yettwaṭṭaf i tuzzya i d-iteddun deg wadeg ad yexser. Yessenqas lmaziyya n lkazinu ɣef rrhun-a ɣer uzgen.Ɣer akk → tessenqas s wazgen lexsara yettwaṛǧantusnaktLexsara yettwaṛǧanAzal yettwaṛǧan seg tmerna n yidrimen yettwarhen; d alemmas n wayen yettwaxsar deg yiwet n tɣimit neɣ deg yiwen wakud.Ɣer akk →-nwen seg 2,70% ɣer 1,35% n umḍan n rrhun meṛṛaidrimenAmḍan n rrhun meṛṛaTamerna n yidrimen yettwarhen deg yiwet n tɣimit neɣ deg yiwen wakud, s rrbeḥ i yettuɣalen yettwarhen. Daɣen: handle, action.Ɣer akk →. D yiwet kan n «tstratijit» deg usebter-a i ibeddlen amḍan. Deg tɣimit n $10 × 100 n tuzzyiwin, d amgired gar −$27 yettwaṛǧan d −$13,50.

Lexsara yettwaṛǧan ɣef rrhun n $10 ɣef uzeggaɣ, 100 n tuzzyiwin$
Ṭṭabla tafransist (la partage)
$13,51
Ṭṭabla tawrupit
$27,03
Ṭṭabla tamarikanit
$52,63
$
026,32$52,63

Alugen En Prison deg rulit

Azeggaɣ/aberkan d tuccḍa n Monte Carlo

26 n uberkan n 1913 d tamacahut yettwassnen akk, i d-yettwaḥkan deg usebter n tuccḍa n umqemmer. Aḥric ifazen n tmacahut mačči d belli azrar-nni yella, ayen ara yilin s tidet deg kra n wadeg yiwen wass, maca d belli lkazinu terbeḥ aṭas n yedrimen seg yimuraren yettḥaqqaqen belli ur yezmir ara ad ikemmel. Lyaqin ɣef tuzzya i d-iteddun d yiwet n tɣawsa kan i ur yettnuzu ara akk uḍebsi.

Rulit n Monte Carlo

Asimulatur · Ur nettbeddil

2 000 n tɣimiyin n rrhun s lexlaṣ imsawi, s ugerruj n $1 000.

Rrehn n tazwara $10 · talast n ṭṭabla $500 · 100 n tuzzyiwin i yal taɣimit

Abeṭṭu n yigmaḍ n tɣimiyinlexsara ← | → rrbeḥ
−$440$0+$280
serset taɣerdayt ɣef ufeggag · ifeggagen izeggaɣen d tiɣimiyin s lexsara, izegzawen s rrbeḥ, afeggag afsas iḍebber $0
tiɣimiyin s rrbeḥ
34,5%
agmuḍ n tlemmast
−$20
agmuḍ alemmas
−$30,12
yeɣli ugerruj
0,0%
aswir 5
−$200
aɣelluy ameqqran n tlemmast
−$120

Isteqsiyen

Azeggaɣ neɣ aberkan, anwa yifen?

Kifkif. 18 n wuṭṭunen yal yiwen.

Ilaq ad beddleɣ ini?

Ur ibeddel acemma. Fernet yiwen i yiḍ meṛṛa ma yella ad awen-d-yall ad tḍefrem igmaḍ.

Rrehn ɣef uzeggaɣ d uberkan akk yexser kan ɣef yilem?

Ih, u ur yettrebḥ acemma deg wayen nniḍen. D rrehn yettxesren 2,70% n tikkal u ur yettrebḥ ara akk: EV −2,70% n wamatu, am wayen nniḍen meṛṛa, war yiwet n lfayda.

Taḍsa i usgunfu

Aḍfar neɣ amgal n uzrar: yiwen uḍebsi, yiwen 2,70%.

Aḍfar neɣ amgal n uzrar: yiwen uḍebsi, yiwen 2,70%.

Iɣbula

  1. RouletteDoc. Tamuɣli s umata ɣef tistratijiyin n rulit. https://roulettedoc.com/strategy
  2. Roulette77. Tamuɣli s umata ɣef tistratijiyin n rulit. https://roulette77.us/strategies
  3. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Ixef 13, rulit.
  4. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, taẓrigt tis 3, 1968. Aɣelluy n umqemmer, ixef XIV.
yettwasenqed 2026-09-28tamudemt: tawrupit, yiwen yilemtarrayt ↗iɣbula ↗