Tistratijiyin n rrhun deg rulit · Taggrayt · 9 tsd

Tzemrem ad tɣelbem rulit? Amek ara terbḥem deg rulit

Amek ara nerbeḥ deg rulit? Mačči s tmudemt n rrhun. Ahat, deg umezruy, s uḍebsi yesɛan lɛib neɣ s ukrupi i yettxeddmen yal tikkelt s yiwen wudem, u kan s lǧehd ameqqran.

Tiririt tawezlant

Inagrawen n rrhun ur zmiren ad ɣelben rulit: azalen yettwaṛǧantusnaktAzal yettwaṛǧanAlemmas n ugmuḍ n yal rrehn deg uɣawas aɣezfan. −1/37 n rrehn i yal rrehn amagnu awrupi.Ɣer akk → ttwarnan wa ɣer wayeḍ u yal rrehn ddaw n yilem. Rrbeḥ kan yettwaseklasen yekka-d seg useqdec n tfizikt, mačči seg tmudmin.

inagrawen
ur zmiren ara
amyal n uḍebsi
yettwaseklas, drus
ibenkan i d-yettinin agmuḍ uqbel
ttwagedlen deg ugar n yimukan
iḍebsiyen n tura
ttwaḥerzen, ttwabeddlen

Acuɣer ur ttedun ara yinagrawen

Yal rrehn yesɛa EV = −1/37 n udrim-is. Yal amtawal n rrhun, akken yebɣu yili ufran-is seg yigmaḍ yezrin, yesɛa EV = −1/37 n wamatu yettwarehnen. D alugen n tusnakt yettwasbeggen ɣef yimatuten n yimuttiyen n zzher, mačči d tamuɣli ara yesfesx unagraw yifen. Joseph Doob d Paul Halmos sbeggnen-t deg yiseggasen n 1930, u Edward Thorp, i yeɣleben s tidet blackjack s uḥsab n tkarḍiwin, yesbadu-d tiwtilin i tesra: yal rrehn ddaw n yilem, tuzzyiwin timanayintusnaktTuzzyiwin timanayinYal tuzzya ɣur-s tiprubabiliyin kif kif, ama d acu i d-yeffɣen yakan. D tagejdit n yal asiḍen deg usmel-a.Ɣer akk →, talast tafellayt d talast tadday n ṭṭabla. Adlis-is n uselmed n 1966 yefka-d asbeggen afessas.

Tilisa n ṭṭabla n rulitTuzzyiwin timanayin n rulit

Ayen yeddan

Kraḍ n tɣawsiwin, akk qqnent ɣer uḍebsi n tidet. Amyal: aḍebsi anda tixxaminibenkanTaxxamtYiwet seg 37 n texxamin s wuṭṭunen ɣef uqerru yettezzin. Daɣen: slot, cup.Ɣer akk → ur sɛint ara yiwet n taprubabilit, yettwafen s tira n yigiman n tuzzyiwin. Tussna n ugmuḍ uqbel: aktazal n tkurtibenkanTakurtTakurt tamecṭuḥt i yettwaḍeqqren deg ubrid mgal aqerru yettezzin. Tikurin n tura d ivorine neɣ d Teflon, 18–21 mm.Ɣer akk → d uqerru yettezzin (rotor)ibenkanAqerru yettezzin (rotor)Aḥric n uḍebsi yettezzin i yeṭṭfen tixxamin.Ɣer akk → akken ad yettwaqedder tagzemtaḍebsiTagzemtAḥric n texxamin yemmeḍfaren ɣef uḍebsi, mačči d tagrumma ɣef tfelwit.Ɣer akk → ideg ara teɣli, yettwaxdem s yiselkimen yettwaffren seg yiseggasen n 1970 ɣer da. Tazmamt n ukrupi: tikti belli asedfel n tkurt sɣur ukrupi yemmezg akken ad yettwassen uqbel anda ara teɣli tkurt, ur d-yettwasken ara akk s tidet. Kraḍ-nni sran aḍebsi n tidet, timuɣli taɣezfant d lkazinu ur nwala ara.

Iɛraḍen yettwaseklasen n tɣelbit n uḍebsi
azal n 1880

Joseph Jagger yessaru iḍebsiyen n Monte Carlo, yufa-d uṭṭunen i d-yettasen aṭas, u yerbeḥ aṭas alamma lkazinu tessenqel iḍebsiyen-is syin tbeddel-iten.

1891

Charles Wells «yerreẓ lbanka» s zzher meqqren aṭas d unagraw ur d-yessefhem ara akk. Yuɣal-d deg tegrest-nni u yexser aḥric deg-s.

1961

Edward Thorp d Claude Shannon bnan aselkim amezwaru yettwalsan i uktazal n tkurt n rulit. Ibenk yeddu tikwal kan; asenfar yettwaǧǧa.

1978

Eudaemons n Santa Cruz sseqdacen iselkimen yettwaffren deg lkazinu n Nevada. Lmaziyya n tidet, taliktrunit ur nettkel ara, ulac rrbeḥ ameqqran.

Iseggasen n 1990

Gonzalo García-Pelayo d twacult-is uran-d azal n 5 000 n tuzzyiwin i yal aḍebsi qrib n Madrid, ufan-d iḍebsiyen s umyal, rebḥen, ttwagedlen, u twalan agdal yettwakkes deg uxxam n ccṛeɛ.

2004

Kraḍ n yimuraren rebḥen £1,3 n yimelyunen deg Ritz deg London s tifin uqbel n wanda ara teɣli tkurt. Laser yettwannan maca ur d-yettwasken ara belli yella; ṭṭfen rrbeḥ.

2012

Small d Tse ssufɣen-d amagrad n tfizikt i d-yesskanen belli lmaziyya n kra n yifmiḍen tezmer ad tettwaweḍ s uktazal deg twtilin n tnarit.

Tazmamt n ukrupiTiddi n tegrumma

Acuɣer ur yeddu ara tura

Lkazinu ttbeddilent iqerra n yiḍebsiyenibenkanAqerru n uḍebsiYiwen unamek d rotor: aḥric yettezzin i yeṭṭfen uṭṭunen.Ɣer akk → gar teqbucinibenkanTaqbuctAḥric n berra n uḍebsi ur nettembiwil: iri n usɣar neɣ n tɣawsa yemxalaḍen i yeṭṭfen abrid n tkurt d tama yeknan, anda yettezzi uqerru.Ɣer akk →, ssuɣdent tiqbucin, ttaktalent tixxamin u ttbeddilent leḥyuḍ n texxaminibenkanLḥiḍ n taxxamtLḥiḍ n wuzzal gar snat n texxamin ɣef uḍebsi.Ɣer akk → s uɣawas, ayen yesxessaren amyal. Istudyuten srid mdelen rrhun uqbel ad tsizzer tkurt u ttsbadun aɛeṭṭel n usuddu, ayen yesxessaren aktazal. Ugar n tmura gedlent ibenkan i d-yettinin agmuḍ uqbel. Ikrupiyen ttwaweṣṣan ad beddlen asedfel-nsen. Tiririt n tidet i uḍebsi n tura yettwaḥerzen deg lkazinu neɣ deg ustudyu s turagt d ala.

abridayen i yesratarrayt n uḥarebaddad
Inagrawen n rrhunacemmaur yesri acemmaur yeddi ara akk
Amyal n uḍebsiigiman n tuzzyiwin yettwarun seg yiwen uḍebsiabeddel, aḥrazd ayen yettwaǧǧan, qrib yenger
Aktazal n tkurtibenk neɣ tamrilt yettwasɣaren, rrhun yeɛṭlen«ulac rrhun nniḍen» zik, agdal n yibenkanttwagedlen deg ugar n yimukan
Tazmamt n ukrupiakrupi yemmezgen, asedfel yettbanenasedfel yemgaraden, abeddel n yikrupiyenur yettwasbeggen ara

Amek tteddu rulit srid

Amek ara tettwaɣleb rulit, deg tikti kan: ayen ara tesra

Ad nini taxxamt teffeɣ-d 1 seg 33 deg wadeg n 1 seg 37. Rrehn ɣef yiwen wuṭṭunrrehnYiwen wuṭṭunYiwen wuṭṭun kan, ixelleṣ 35:1.Ɣer akk → fell-as yesɛa EV = 35/33 − 32/33 = +3/33 ≈ +9%. Akken ad teẓrem belli taxxamt tesɛa amyal mačči d zzher, tesram azal n 10 000 n tuzzyiwin yettwarun seg uḍebsi-nni s yiman-is; akken ad tt-tesseqdcem, tesram aḍebsi ad yeqqim akken yella mi ara tettrehnem fell-as. Isebtar n Tnarit n rulit ssefhamen-d tidaddanin; isebtar n umezruy ssefhamen-d ayen yeḍran i yimdanen i t-yexdmen.

Asbeggen n umyal yesra idlisen n tuzzyiwin yettwarun akken ad d-tban yiwet n texxamt.

Tiririt n tidet

I win yeɣran yesɛan anagraw: ur yettedu ara, u tzemrem ad tesenqdem aya s yisimulaturen n usmel-a deg yiwen n tmeddit. I win yeɣran yesɛan akarnit d ṣṣber: amyal yella deg tikti u yettwakkes deg telqayt. I yal yiwen: rulit d aqḍu. Xelṣet ssuma i wen-yeɛǧben, s urured i tfernem, ɣef uḍebsi s yiwen yilemaḍebsiIlemTaxxamt tazegzawt tasuft ur yeṭṭif ula d yiwen n rrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi, n ddzina neɣ n tgejdit; d aɣbalu n lmaziyya n lkazinu. Daɣen: yiwen yilem, 0.Ɣer akk → d la partagealugenLa partageAlugen afransis: mi ara d-yeffeɣ yilem, azgen n rrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi yettuɣal-d. Yessenqas lmaziyya n lkazinu ɣef rrhun-a ɣer uzgen, d 1,35%.Ɣer akk → ma tufam-t.

Alugen La Partage deg rulit

Isteqsiyen

Tella tastratijit n rulit i yesserbaḥen yal tikkelt?

Ala. «Imerbḥen» n yinagrawen yettwassnen am Charles Wells rebḥen s zzher u xesren aḥric deg-s.

Amyal n uḍebsi mazal yezmer ad yili?

Deg tikti. Deg lkazinu neɣ deg ustudyu n tura, ad yettwaf u ad yettwaseggem uqbel ad tesɛum isefka i yekfan akken ad t-tesseqdcem.

Isnasen i d-yettinin agmuḍ uqbel ttwaǧǧan?

Ala deg ugar n tmura, u ur ttwasseqdacen ara mgal ṭṭablat srid i yemdelen rrhun uqbel ad tsizzer tkurt.

Taḍsa i usgunfu

Tafizikt, mačči timudmin. U ula d tafizikt ur tettedu ara tura.

Tafizikt, mačči timudmin. U ula d tafizikt ur tettedu ara tura.

Iɣbula

  1. RouletteDoc. Tamuɣli s umata ɣef tistratijiyin n rulit. https://roulettedoc.com/strategy
  2. Roulette77. Tamuɣli s umata ɣef tistratijiyin n rulit. https://roulette77.us/strategies
  3. Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.” Review of the International Statistical Institute 37(3), 1969.
  4. Thorp, E. O. Elementary Probability. Wiley, 1966. Isebtar 84–85, alugen n «ulac anagraw».
  5. Doob, J. L. “Note on probability.” Annals of Mathematics 37(2), 1936.
  6. Halmos, P. R. “Invariants of certain stochastic transformations: the mathematical theory of gambling systems.” Duke Mathematical Journal 5(2), 1939.
  7. Bass, T. A. The Eudaemonic Pie. Houghton Mifflin, 1985.
  8. Small, M. & Tse, C. K. “Predicting the outcome of roulette.” Chaos 22(3), 2012.
  9. Barnhart, R. T. Beating the Wheel. Lyle Stuart, 1992.
  10. Chellel, K. “The Gambler Who Beat Roulette.” Bloomberg Businessweek, yebrir 2023.
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