Rulit d uselmed n tusnakt
Aḍebsi n rulit yesseshel ad nwali taprubabilit s walln. Ha-t-a amek ara t-tesqedcem deg yiwet n tmsirt war ma tettḥeṛṣem medden ɣer lqmer.
Sa u tlatin n yigmaḍ s yiwet n tprubabilit, lexlaṣ yettwasbadun, timanayt, azal yettwaṛǧan ddaw n yilem yettwassnen d umezruy aɣezfan n yimdanen i yeɣlḍen. Rulit tesskan-d azal yettwaṛǧan, tavaryanstusnaktTavaryansAktazal n wamek i d-ttwazzaren igmaḍ i tama n wazal yettwaṛǧan. Meqqret i rrehn ɣef yiwen wuṭṭun, meẓẓiyet i rrhun s lexlaṣ imsawi.Ɣer akk →, alugen n wuṭṭunen imeqqranentusnaktAlugen n wuṭṭunen imeqqranenAlemmas n yigmaḍ imanayen yettqerrib ɣer wazal yettwaṛǧan mi ara yettimɣur umḍan n tirmitin.Ɣer akk →, tuccḍa n umqemmer, akayad n tidabiyin d ugur n wass n tlalit xir n yiṣurdiyen neɣ n zzhaṛ.
Ayɣer rulit
Aṣurdi yesɛa sin n yigmaḍ, zzhaṛ sḍis; i sin d imecṭaḥ aṭas akken ad d-sskanen ugur n wass n tlalittusnaktUgur n wass n tlalitAcḥal n yimdanen i ilaqen send ad yili, s tprubabilit, sin i yesɛan yiwen wass n tlalit, neɣ acḥal n tuzzyiwin send ad d-yuɣal yiwen wuṭṭun. Ɣef uḍebsi n 37 n texxamin, 8 n tuzzyiwin qadrent akken taprubabilit ad tili ugar n uzgen.Ɣer akk → neɣ akayad χ² (chi-square)tanaritAkayad χ² (chi-square)Akayad adaddan i yesserwasen amḍan n tikkal i d-teffeɣ yal taxxamt d wayen yettwaṛǧan, n/37. Yettwasqedcen akken ad naẓ ma yella uḍebsi s umyal.Ɣer akk → s wayen ara yessewhamen. Akemmus n tkarḍiwin yesɛa takatut. Rulit tesɛa 37 n yigmaḍ s yiwet n tprubabilit, lexlaṣidrimenLexlaṣAyen i d-yettak rrehn i yerbḥen, yettwanna «X ɣef 1» nnig rrehn i d-yettuɣalen.Ɣer akk → yettwasbadun i yerran azal yettwaṛǧan d leḥsab n yiwen ujerriḍ, timanayt i d-yekkan seg talɣa n uḍebsi, d lmaziyya d tamecṭuḥt akken ad teffer deg yiwet n tɣimit, d tameqqrant akken ad tḥekkem deg yiwen useggas. Tesɛa daɣen sin n leqrun n tuccḍiwin yettwarun i nezmer ad nesleḍ.
Tagrumma n tmsirin
Aselmed war aselmed n lqmer
Sqedcet idrimen n wurar d Wurar n uɛraḍ, ur nesɛi ara rrhun n tidet. Bdut s wazal yettwaṛǧantusnaktAzal yettwaṛǧanAlemmas n ugmuḍ n yal rrehn deg uɣawas aɣezfan. −1/37 n rrehn i yal rrehn amagnu awrupi.Ɣer akk → u uɣalet ɣur-s yal tikkelt: yal tawuri ad tekfu s « u azal yettwaṛǧan d −1/37 n rrehn ». Sqedcet inagrawen am yimedyaten n mgal, mačči am tarrayin: tawuri d tifin n tuccḍa, u asimulatur yesskan-d tuccḍa-nni deg kra n tsinin. Rnut amezruy n yimdanen i yexsren. Tamsirt d akken leḥsab d netta i yettrebḥen, d ayen yellan d mgal n udellel.
Tiwuriwin i yeddan
Init-asen i yinelmaden ad d-inin acḥal n tuzzyiwin ar ad d-yuɣal yiwen wuṭṭun, sakin ad d-sseddun Urar n uɛraḍ mraw n tikkal (ugur n wass n tlalit). Init-asen ad arun « anagraw » deg umaẓrag n tstratijit u ad sseddun 10 000 n tɣimiyin (timerna n yizalen yettwaṛǧan). Init-asen ad ḥesben taprubabilittusnaktTaprubabilitAzal n yiwen ugmuḍ ad d-yeḍru, seg 0 ɣer 1 neɣ seg 0% ɣer 100%. Yiwen wuṭṭun: 1/37 = 2,70%.Ɣer akk → n uzrar n 1913, sakin taprubabilit ad d-yili uzrar-nni deg kra n wakud deg xemsin n yiseggasen n Monte Carlo (lemxalfa gar tedyant yettwasbadun d kra n tedyant). Init-asen ad afen taxxamtibenkanTaxxamtYiwet seg 37 n texxamin s wuṭṭunen ɣef uqerru yettezzin. Daɣen: slot, cup.Ɣer akk → « s umyal » deg umezruy n tuzzyiwin n uḍebsi imsawi, sakin ad xelḍen isefka (aṭas n yiserwasen).
Ayɣer ur yettwattu ara
Inelmaden ttmektin 26 n uberkanrrehnAberkanRrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi ɣef 18 n wuṭṭunen iberkanen. S tefransist: noir.Ɣer akk →, aḍebsi n Jagger, d akud anida asimulatur yesskan-d anagraw-nsen yettexsar. Taprubabilit tamaswat ttettun-tt send akayad; aḍebsi ur t-ttun ara. Talast n lexlaq tban: selmdet leḥsab i yerran urar d rrehn n diri, s wurar-nni s timmad-is, u inelmaden ara yuraren lqmer sakin ad ẓren ɣas ssuma-s.
Isteqsiyen
S yidrimen n wurar d tmuɣli tafessast belli lmaziyya n lkazinutusnaktLmaziyya n lkazinuAḥric n yal rrehn i teṭṭef lkazinu s ulemmas: 2,70% deg rulit tawrupit.Ɣer akk → d netta i d tamsirt, aṭas n wahilen n uselmed sqedcen yakan zzhaṛ d lluṭu; rulit d yiwet n talɣa n tɣawsa-nni yakan, s ugar n wayen ara yettwalmed deg-s.
Lmaziyya n lkazinu, sakin Urar n uɛraḍ, sakin Asimulatur n tstratijit.
Ulac deg-s yedrimen n tidet, ulac imiḍanen, ulac iseɣwan ɣer yimsefrak n lkazinu.
Taḍsa i usgunfu
Sa u tlatin n yigmaḍ, yiwet n lmaziyya, sin n leqrun n tuccḍiwin i ilaq ad nelmed seg-sent.
Iɣbula
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.