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Azal yettwaṛǧan deg rulit

Azal yettwaṛǧan deg rulit d agmuḍ alemmas n rrehn ma yella tzemrem ad t-tɛawdem i lebda. Deg rulit tawrupit d yiwen i yal rrehn amagnu: ad texsrem 1/37 n yal rrehn, s ulemmas, i yal tuzzya.

S wawal fessusen

Xemmet ad tsersem rrehn-nni n $10 ɣef uzeggaɣ amelyun n tikkal. Kra n tuzzyiwin rebḥent $10, kra xesrent $10. Rnut akk igmaḍ u bḍut-ten ɣef umelyun: ad tawim qrib −$0,27. Amḍan-a d azal yettwaṛǧan n rrehn n rulit. Mačči d ayen yeḍran deg yiwet n tuzzya; d alemmas n uɣawas aɣezfan i yal tuzzya.

Tiririt tawezlantEV = taprubabilit n rrbeḥ × ayen yettwarebḥen − taprubabilit n lexsara × ayen yettwaxesren. I yal rrehn amagnu n rulit, d −2,70% n rrehn.

Tasemselt n EV n rrehn n rulit

EV = p · W − (1 − p) · S
p = n/37 · W = S·(36/n − 1) · n = uṭṭunen yettwaḍebren · S = adrim n rrehn

Ma nesers alugen n lexlaṣ n rulit, 36/n − 1, deg umkan-is, n yettwakkes. D tamacahut meṛṛa n lmaziyya n lkazinu deg yiwen ujerriḍ:

EV = (n/37)·S·(36/n − 1) − ((37−n)/37)·S
   = S·(36 − n − 37 + n)/37
   = −S/37

Ɛerḍet: tamsiḍent n wazal yettwaṛǧan n rulit

Fernet acḥal n wuṭṭunen i yeḍebber rrehn. Taprubabilit d lexlaṣ ttbeddilen; azal yettwaṛǧan ur yettbeddil ara.

1 n wuṭṭun yettwaḍebren · ixelleṣ 35:1adrim n rrehn $10
p(rrbeḥ)1/37 = 2,70%
rrbeḥ ixelleṣ+$350
lexsara tetteklif−$10
EV = p·W − (1−p)·S0,0270·$350 − 0,9730·$10
azal yettwaṛǧan−$0,27 i yal tuzzya · −2,70%

Amek i d-yettban s wakud

Agmuḍ alemmas i yal tuzzya n rrehn n $10 ɣef uzeggaɣ, mi ara rnunt tuzzyiwin. Di tazwara, zzher d netta i yeḥkemen; alemmas yettkemmilen yerseḥ ɣer −$0,27 mi ara timɣur tegrumma. Wa d amlili deg uɣawas aɣezfan ɣef i tettkel lkazinu.

EV −$0,27tuzzya 1tuzzya 2 000
Tuzzya deffir tuzzya, alemmas yettkemmilen yeḥbes ahuzzu u yeqqim ddaw yilem s cwiṭ.

Tikta yettwassnen ur nṣeḥḥa ara

«EV ddaw n yilem yebɣa ad yini ad xesreɣ yal taɣimit.»
Ala. Yebɣa ad yini alemmas n waṭas n tɣimiyin d lexsara. Tiɣimiyin, yal yiwet, mgaradent aṭas, ugar i rrhun s tavaryans tameqqrant am yiwen wuṭṭun.
«Lkazinu tesra aṭas n wakud akken ad terbeḥ.»
Lmaziyya n lkazinu tella deg yal tuzzya; aɣawas aɣezfan yettarra kan agmuḍ d win i nezmer ad t-nẓer zik. Deg yiwet n teɣimit, zzher d tazmert tameqqrant ugar.
«Kra n rrhun sɛan EV yelhan ugar n wiyaḍ.»
Mačči deg rulit tawrupit, ala yiwet: s La Partage neɣ En Prison, rrhun s lexlaṣ imsawi sɛan azgen n lmaziyya n lkazinu tamagnut.

Taḍsa i usgunfu

Mačči d ayen yeḍran deg yiwet n tuzzya. D alemmas n akk tuzzyiwin.

Mačči d ayen yeḍran deg yiwet n tuzzya. D alemmas n akk tuzzyiwin.