Tusnakt n rulit · Tamselɣut · 5 tsd

Tafelwit n wassaɣ n lexlaṣ d tprubabilit deg rulit

Yal rrehn amagnu s taprubabilit-is, lexlaṣ-is, wazal-is yettwaṛǧantusnaktAzal yettwaṛǧanAlemmas n ugmuḍ n yal rrehn deg uɣawas aɣezfan. −1/37 n rrehn i yal rrehn amagnu awrupi.Ɣer akk → d ubeɛɛed-is alugan.

Tiririt tawezlant

Akk rrhun bḍan yiwen wazal yettwaṛǧan, −2,70% n udrim n rrehn. Mgaraden kan deg taprubabilit d usemres.

rrhun yettwabedren
9
EV, akk rrhun
−2,70%
agraw n σ
1,00 ɣer 5,84
rrhun s wawal
daɣen 2,70%

Amek ara teɣrem tafelwit-a n wassaɣ n rulit

TaprubabilittusnaktTaprubabilitAzal n yiwen ugmuḍ ad d-yeḍru, seg 0 ɣer 1 neɣ seg 0% ɣer 100%. Yiwen wuṭṭun: 1/37 = 2,70%.Ɣer akk → teqqar-awen acḥal n tikkal ara terbḥem; lexlaṣidrimenLexlaṣAyen i d-yettak rrehn i yerbḥen, yettwanna «X ɣef 1» nnig rrehn i d-yettuɣalen.Ɣer akk →, yettwanṭaqen am wassaɣ n rulit, yeqqar-awen acḥal; σ yeqqar-awen acḥal yettneggiz ubrid. Tagejdit EV d yiwet deg yal ajerriḍ s tɣessa, ihi tafelwit d amuɣ n tivaryansintusnaktTavaryansAktazal n wamek i d-ttwazzaren igmaḍ i tama n wazal yettwaṛǧan. Meqqret i rrehn ɣef yiwen wuṭṭun, meẓẓiyet i rrhun s lexlaṣ imsawi.Ɣer akk → s yiwet n ssuma.

rrehnyeṭṭefp(rrbeḥ)ixelleṣσ i $1
Yiwen wuṭṭun1/372,70%35:15,84
Sin wuṭṭunen2/375,41%17:14,09
Izirig3/378,11%11:13,28
Tiɣmert4/3710,81%8:12,84
Sin yizirigen6/3716,22%5:12,23
Ddzina12/3732,43%2:11,39
Tagejdit12/3732,43%2:11,39
Lexlaṣ imsawi18/3748,65%1:11,00
EV d −$0,027 i yal $1 deg yal ajerriḍ.

Rrhun s wawal

Rrhun n tegzemtaḍebsiTagzemtAḥric n texxamin yemmeḍfaren ɣef uḍebsi, mačči d tagrumma ɣef tfelwit.Ɣer akk → d isemlilen n rrhun imagnuten, werten lmaziyya-nsen. Yal yiwen yesɛa udem-is n lexlaṣ acku ijiṭunenidrimenAjiṭunTamatart i d-yemmalen azal yettwasbedden, yettwasersen ɣef tfelwit akken ad yili rrehn. Daɣen: check.Ɣer akk → ur ttwabḍan ara s umsawi.

rrehn s wawalijiṭunenyeṭṭefp(yal tuṭṭfa)ačuran ma yeṭṭef (iferdisen)EV i uferdis
Lǧiran (5)55/3713,51%+31−2,70%
Jeu zéro47/3718,92%+14 neɣ +32−2,70%
Orphelins58/3721,62%+13 neɣ +31−2,70%
Tiers du cylindre612/3732,43%+12−2,70%
Voisins du zéro917/3745,95%+9 neɣ +15−2,70%

Azal yettwaṛǧan n rrhun s wawal

Deg waṭas n tuzzyiwin

Tiprubabiliyin n yiwet n tuṭṭfa ma drus deg k n tuzzyiwin, i kra n yisteqsiyen yettwafen.

rrehndeg 10 n tuzzyiwindeg 37 n tuzzyiwindeg 100 n tuzzyiwin
Yiwen wuṭṭun24,0%63,7%93,5%
Sin wuṭṭunen42,6%87,1%99,6%
Tiɣmert68,1%98,6%> 99,9%
Ddzina98,0%> 99,9%> 99,9%
Ilem (yettwasbedden)24,0%63,7%93,5%
1 − (1 − p)ᵏ.

Asemres n tɣimiyin

Abeɛɛed alugantusnaktAbeɛɛed aluganAẓar amkuẓ n tavaryans; ameccaq n umata gar ugmuḍ d wazal yettwaṛǧan.Ɣer akk → n teɣimit n 100 n tuzzyiwin s $10 ur nettbeddil, s rrehn, s ugmuḍ yettwaṛǧan yettwabḍan n −$27.

σ n 100 n tuzzyiwin s $10$
Yiwen wuṭṭun
$584
Sin wuṭṭunen
$409
Izirig
$328
Tiɣmert
$284
Sin yizirigen
$223
Ddzina / tagejdit
$139
Lexlaṣ imsawi
$100
$
0292$584

Isteqsiyen

Ayɣer EV d yiwen deg yal ajerriḍ?

Acku yal lexlaṣ d 36/n − 1 mgal 37/n − 1 n lḥeqq. Walit asebter n lmaziyya n lkazinutusnaktLmaziyya n lkazinuAḥric n yal rrehn i teṭṭef lkazinu s ulemmas: 2,70% deg rulit tawrupit.Ɣer akk →.

Anida tella la partage?

Rrhun s lexlaṣ imsawirrehnRrehn s lexlaṣ imsawiAzeggaɣ/aberkan, aryan/uyug, afellay/adday. 18 n wuṭṭunen, ixelleṣ 1:1.Ɣer akk → ɣef ṭṭabla tafransist: p d lexlaṣ ur beddlen ara, EV −1,35%, σ ≈ 0,99.

Tella tfelwit i uḍebsi amarikani?

Bḍut ɣef 38 deg umkan n 37, tagejdit EV ad tuɣal −5,26% deg yal ajerriḍ, −7,89% i rrehn ɣef semmus n wuṭṭunen.

Taḍsa i usgunfu

Tẓa n rrhun, yiwen wazal yettwaṛǧan, ulac takatut.

Tẓa n rrhun, yiwen wazal yettwaṛǧan, ulac takatut.

Iɣbula

  1. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Ixef 13, rulit.
Tusnakt n rulitTaprubabilit deg rulitTusnakt n rulitTavaryansLmed rulitLexlaṣ deg rulitIfecka n rulitTamsiḍent n tprubabilit n rulit
yettwasenqed 2026-09-28tamudemt: tawrupit, yiwen yilemtarrayt ↗iɣbula ↗