Tastratijit Labouchère
Tastratijit Labouchère n rulit tetteddu s ujerriḍ n wuṭṭunen. Rhent amatu n yixfawen. Kkset-ten deffir rrbeḥ, rnut rrehn yexsren deffir lexsara.
Ur tettɣellib ara aḍebsi. Tagara n ujerriḍ tettak amatu-ines. Ajerriḍ yettimɣur deg tallit n lexsarat, d yedrimen n rrehn yid-s. Lexsara yettwaṛǧan: 2,70% n wayen meṛṛa yettwarehnen.
Ḍfer anagraw
Rrehn d uṭṭun amezwaru yernan ɣer umaggaru. Rrbeḥ ikkes-iten i sin. Lexsara tettaru rrehn ɣer taggara.
Rrhun d yigmaḍ s yiferdisen n rrehn n tazwara.
Amek yeddu unagraw Labouchère n rulit ɣef lkaɣeḍ
Ferzet acḥal tebɣam ad trebḥem, ad nini 10 n yiferdisenidrimenAferdisRrehn agejdan s wacu i yettxeddem unagraw neɣ amurar. Inagrawen n usnerni ttwaglamen s yiferdisen akken ad ilin i yal ṭṭabla.Ɣer akk →, u arut-t d ajerriḍ n wuṭṭunen i d-yettaken amatu-a: 1 2 3 4. Yal rrehn d uṭṭun amezwaru d uneggaru: 1 + 4 = 5. Ma trebḥem, kkset sin yixfawen; ajerriḍ tura d 2 3. Ma texsrem, arut adrim n rrehn deg taggara: 1 2 3 4 5. Kemmlet alamma yekfa ujerriḍ, ayen yebɣan ad yini belli trebḥem 10 n yiferdisen, neɣ alamma ur tezmirem ara i rrehn i d-iteddun. Yeddu am wumuɣ n twuriwin: yal tawuri yemmden tekkes snat n tɣawsiwin, u yal tawuri ur nemmid ara ternu yiwet tameqqrant ugar deg taggara.
Acuɣer ajerriḍ s waṭas yettwaṣfa?
Yal rrbeḥ yekkes sin wuṭṭunen; yal lexsara ternu yiwen. Ajerriḍ yettenqas yal tikkelt ara yili rrbeḥ ugar n wazgen n lexsarat, ayen yettilin s waṭas ɣef lexlaṣ imsawi (48,6%). Ugar n yijerriḍen ttwaṣfan. D wa i yesseɛǧaben, d wa daɣen i d tixeṛṛist: tiɣimiyin anda ur yettwaṣfa ara ujerriḍ d tid anda lexsarat ugarent rrbeḥ s sin ɣef yiwen kra n wakud, u imir-nni uṭṭunen n ujerriḍ, d yedrimen n rrehn, imɣuren.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- azal n tlemmast −$500
- p75 −$500
- p90 +$1 570
Anagraw Labouchère yeddu?
Ala. Ugar n yijerriḍen ttwaṣfan, u wid ur nettwaṣfa ara ttkellifen ugar n wayen rebḥen wid yettwaṣfan. Seg 1 2 3 4, azrar n tam n lexsarat yettak-d ajerriḍ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 d rrehn i d-iteddun n 13 n yiferdisen, s 68 n yiferdisen yexsren yakan. S $10 i uferdis, d rrehn n $130 d $680 n lexsara. Tam n lexsarat s lexlaṣ imsawi yemmeḍfaren sɛant taprubabilittusnaktTaprubabilitAzal n yiwen ugmuḍ ad d-yeḍru, seg 0 ɣer 1 neɣ seg 0% ɣer 100%. Yiwen wuṭṭun: 1/37 = 2,70%.Ɣer akk → n (19/37)⁸ ≈ 0,5% seg yal adeg n tazwara, u taɣimit n 200 n tuzzyiwin tettak aṭas n yimukan n tazwara. Mačči am MartingaletastratijitMartingaleAnagraw n usnerni i yessneggmen rrehn deffir yal lexsara. Walit taggayt n tstratijit i wayen i yettxemmem d wayen ur yettxemmim ara.Ɣer akk →, yiwen n rrbeḥ ur t-yesseggem ara; yessefk ad yettwaṣfa ujerriḍ, ayen yesran aṭas n rrbeḥ ugar n lexsarat.
Acḥal n yedrimen i yesra ujerriḍ awezlan deffir-s?
Ajerriḍ yettwassnen akk awezlan, 1 2 3, yettrebḥ 6 n yiferdisen. Nexdem tasimulasyunt n sin imelyunen n yijerriḍen am wa ɣef uzeggaɣrrehnAzeggaɣRrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi ɣef 18 n wuṭṭunen izeggaɣen. S tefransist: rouge.Ɣer akk → ɣef uḍebsi awrupi war talast tafellayt n ṭṭabla u nura-d idrimen akk imeqqranen i yesra yal ajerriḍ: lexsarat ar tura d rrehn i d-iteddun. Azgen n yijerriḍen ur sran ara ugar n 9 n yiferdisen. Yiwen seg mraw yesra ugar n 79 u yiwen seg xemsin ugar n 490, u akken ad yekfu 99 n yijerriḍen seg 100, amurar yesra azal n 1 050 n yiferdisen deffir iswi n 6 n yiferdisen. Ula war ilemaḍebsiIlemTaxxamt tazegzawt tasuft ur yeṭṭif ula d yiwen n rrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi, n ddzina neɣ n tgejdit; d aɣbalu n lmaziyya n lkazinu. Daɣen: yiwen yilem, 0.Ɣer akk →, deg urar n lḥeqqtusnaktUrar n lḥeqqUrar anda ulac win ɣur-s lmaziyya: yal rrehn azal-is yettwaṛǧan d ilem.Ɣer akk →, ad yesra azal n 700. S drus deffir-s, ajerriḍ yettwaxsar tikwal, u yiwen ujerriḍ yexsren yettkellif ugar n wayen rebḥen aṭas n yijerriḍen yekfan.
Llant tiwsatin nniḍen?
LabouchèretastratijitLabouchèreAnagraw n tukksa: aru ajerriḍ n wuṭṭunen, rhen s tmerna n sin yixfawen, kkes-iten deffir rrbeḥ, rnu adrim yexsren deffir lexsara.Ɣer akk → amettiw yettarnu deffir rrbeḥ u yekkes deffir lexsara, yerra-t d anagraw n usnernitastratijitAnagraw n usnerniYal alugen i yettbeddilen rrehn ɣef leḥsab n yigmaḍ yezrin. Asnerni deffir lexsara yessali-t deffir lexsara, asnerni deffir rrbeḥ deffir rrbeḥ.Ɣer akk → deffir rrbeḥ s uḥbas deg-s. Beṭṭu n ujerriḍ aɣezfan ɣef sin wawezlanen («1 2 3 4 5 6» ɣer «1 2 3» d «4 5 6») yessenqas idrimen n rrehn u yessuli s snat n tikkal amḍan n yijerriḍen ara yettwaṣfun. Tazwara s yiwen wuṭṭun kan d rrehn ur nettbeddiltastratijitRrehn ur nettbeddilRrehn n yiwen wazal deg yal tuzzya. D aswir ɣer wacu i yettwaserwas yal anagraw n usnerni.Ɣer akk → s yiswi.
Labouchère amettiw yeɣleb lkazinu n Nice?
Deg tewsit tamettiwt, rrbeḥ yettarnu adrim n rrehn deg taggara n ujerriḍ u lexsara tekkes sin yixfawen. Ajerriḍ i yekfan yekellef amatu-ines, 10 n yiferdisen i 1 2 3 4; ajerriḍ yettkemmilen ad yettrebḥ yessimɣur rrhun-is alamma rrehn i d-iteddun ad yeɛdu talast tafellayt n ṭṭabla, syin amurar yeṭṭef rrbeḥ u yettɛawad seg tazwara. D Labouchère yettwaqelben: aṭas n yijerriḍen imecṭaḥ n lexsara d yiwen n rrbeḥ ameqqran i d-yettasen drus. Adlis n Norman Leigh Thirteen Against the Bank (1976) yeḥka amek yesseqdec-it ugraw-is ɣef sḍis akk n rrhun s lexlaṣ imsawi deg Nice deg 1966, u taḥkayt i d-yusan deffir tenna-d belli 96 seg 100 n tɣimiyin n uɛeggen rebḥent (Goldman, 2007). D ayen yettwaqelben. Deg tsimulasyunt-nneɣ, ugar n tɣimiyin xesrent u kra rebḥent aṭas, u mi tettali talast tafellayt, rrbeḥ yettuɣal drus u meqqer. Ssuma d yiwet 1,35%-nni n umḍan n rrhun meṛṛaidrimenAmḍan n rrhun meṛṛaTamerna n yidrimen yettwarhen deg yiwet n tɣimit neɣ deg yiwen wakud, s rrbeḥ i yettuɣalen yettwarhen. Daɣen: handle, action.Ɣer akk → s la partagealugenLa partageAlugen afransis: mi ara d-yeffeɣ yilem, azgen n rrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi yettuɣal-d. Yessenqas lmaziyya n lkazinu ɣef rrhun-a ɣer uzgen, d 1,35%.Ɣer akk → akken yebɣu tili talast.
Anwa i d Labouchère?
Henry Labouchère (1831–1912), aneɣmas, bab n umezgun d unaib n Liberal, yerra anagraw yettwassen deg tmetti n London u ttinin belli yesseqdac-it deg Monte Carlo. Tarrayt n tukksa tella uqbel-is. Ur d-yettwasken ara akk belli ibeddel lexsara yettwaṛǧantusnaktLexsara yettwaṛǧanAzal yettwaṛǧan seg tmerna n yidrimen yettwarhen; d alemmas n wayen yettwaxsar deg yiwet n tɣimit neɣ deg yiwen wakud.Ɣer akk →, i d amatu n yedrimen n rrehn yettwabḍan ɣef 37.
Asimulatur · Labouchère
2 000 n tɣimiyin n rrhun s lexlaṣ imsawi, s ugerruj n $1 000.
Rrehn n tazwara $10 · talast n ṭṭabla $500 · 100 n tuzzyiwin i yal taɣimit
Acḥal n tikkal i d-yettas uzrar n lexsara
Rrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi ɣef uḍebsi s yiwen yilem yettexsar 19 n tuzzyiwin seg 37. Yal ajerriḍ d taprubabilit ara xesrent akk tuzzyiwin n yiwen uzrar, d wayen yexser ar tura umurar n Labouchère, i yebdan s ujerriḍ 1 2 3 4 u yettarun yal rrehn yexsren ɣer taggara-s.
| lexsarat ṭṭafarent | taprubabilit | qrib 1 seg | lexsara ar tura | rrehn d-iteddun |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51,4% | 2 | $5 | $6 |
| 2 | 26,4% | 4 | $11 | $7 |
| 3 | 13,5% | 7 | $18 | $8 |
| 4 | 7,0% | 14 | $26 | $9 |
| 5 | 3,6% | 28 | $35 | $10 |
| 6 | 1,8% | 55 | $45 | $11 |
| 7 | 0,94% | 106 | $56 | $12 |
| 8 | 0,48% | 207 | $68 | $13 |
| 9 | 0,25% | 403 | $81 | $14 |
| 10 | 0,13% | 784 | $95 | $15 |
| 11 | 0,065% | 1527 | $110 | $16 |
| 12 | 0,034% | 2974 | $126 | $17 |
| 13 | 0,017% | 5792 | $143 | $18 |
| 14 | 0,0089% | 11279 | $161 | $19 |
| 15 | 0,0046% | 21965 | $180 | $20 |
Taprubabilit d 19/37 yettwasgeten s yiman-is yiwet n tikkelt i yal lexsara, seg yiwet n tuzzya yettwafernen. Taɣimit taɣezfant tesɛa aṭas n tuzzyiwin anda yezmer ad yebdu wazrar am wa, ihi deg yiwet n tmeddit taprubabilit-is tugar aṭas ayen i d-yesskan yiwen ujerriḍ.
Isteqsiyen
Idrimen n rrehn ttimɣuren s leɛqel ugar, ihi iɣzer drus ugar u alluy ɣezzif ugar. Lexsara yettwaṛǧan i yal aferdis yettwarehnen d yiwet.
Win awezlan s wuṭṭunen imecṭaḥ. Iḥedd idrimen n rrehn d wakud n usfaḍ; ur ibeddel ara lmaziyya.
Ih. Agmuḍ-nwen d amatu ar tura deg tallit-nni kan.
Urar s tusnakt
Ɛerḍet-tent s yiman-nwen qbel. Yal tifrat tettwaffer; ldit-tt mi ara tilim twejdem.
Bdut LabouchèretastratijitLabouchèreAnagraw n tukksa: aru ajerriḍ n wuṭṭunen, rhen s tmerna n sin yixfawen, kkes-iten deffir rrbeḥ, rnu adrim yexsren deffir lexsara.Ɣer akk → amagnu s 1 2 3 4 5, iswi n 15, u xesret ukkuẓ n rrhun imezwura. Amek yella ujerriḍ, acḥal i texsrem, d acu i d rrehn d-iteddun?
Sken-d tifrat
Tiririt Ajerriḍ d 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9, texsrem 30 n yiferdisenidrimenAferdisRrehn agejdan s wacu i yettxeddem unagraw neɣ amurar. Inagrawen n usnerni ttwaglamen s yiferdisen akken ad ilin i yal ṭṭabla.Ɣer akk →, u rrehn d-iteddun d 10.
Rrhun d 1 + 5 = 6, syin 1 + 6 = 7, 1 + 7 = 8 d 1 + 8 = 9. Yal lexsara tettwaru ɣer taggara n ujerriḍ. Ayen yexsren ar tura: 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 = 30.
Ajerriḍ tura yemrennu d 45: iswi n 15 d 30-nni yexsren. Tukksa-s mazal terbeḥ 15 kan. Yal rrbeḥ yekkes sin wuṭṭunen, ihi yesra ma drus semmus n rrbeḥ nniḍen, s tazwara n rrehn n 10 n yiferdisen, u yal lexsara deg ubrid tessaɣzaf ajerriḍ tikkelt nniḍen.
«Guaranteed Roulette System» n Bartschelly yebda s 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2, iswi n 15. Deffir lexsara, ur yettaru ara ayen yexsren ɣer taggara: yettrennu-t aferdis s uferdis ɣer wuṭṭunen ineggura n ujerriḍ. Xesret kraḍ n rrhun. Amek yella ujerriḍ, acḥal i texsrem, d acu i d rrehn d-iteddun?
Sken-d tifrat
Tiririt Ajerriḍ d 1 1 1 1 1 3 4 5 5 5, texsrem 12 n yiferdisen, u rrehn d-iteddun d 6, am deg Labouchère amagnu.
Rrehn amezwaru: 1 + 2 = 3. Yexser, u 1 n uferdis yettwarnu ɣer yal yiwen seg kraḍ n wuṭṭunen ineggura: 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3.
Rrehn wis sin: 1 + 3 = 4. Yexser: 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 4.
Rrehn wis kraḍ: 1 + 4 = 5. Yexser: 1 1 1 1 1 3 4 5 5 5. Ayen yexsren: 3 + 4 + 5 = 12, u ajerriḍ yemrennu d 27.
Labouchère amagnu seg tazwara-nni yiwet yili yesɛa ajerriḍ 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5, yemrennu daɣen d 27, s yiwen n rrehn d-iteddun n 6. Ajerriḍ yeqqim s mraw n wuṭṭunen, ayen yettbanen d ahennani, maca rrhun ttalin akken kan.
Turarem Labouchère s ujerriḍ 1 2 3 4. Ar tura texsrem 12 n rrhun u ajerriḍ mazal ur yettwakkes ara. Acḥal n rrbeḥ s umata i yesra? Ma yella texsrem 13?
Sken-d tifrat
Tiririt 8 n rrbeḥ s 12 n lexsarat, 9 n rrbeḥ s 13. Deg sin-nni, ajerriḍ yekfa s rrbeḥ n 10 n yiferdisen, ɣas terbḥem ddaw n wezgen n rrhun-nwen.
Ḥesbet uṭṭunen n ujerriḍ. Yebda s 4. Yal lexsara tettaru yiwen nniḍen; yal rrbeḥ yekkes sin, neɣ aneggaru ma yeqqim yiwen kan. Deffir W n rrbeḥ d L n lexsarat, qqimen 4 + L − 2W, ihi ajerriḍ yekfa mi ara yili 2W ma drus 4 + L.
12 n lexsarat: 2W ilaq ad yaweḍ 16, ihi 8 n rrbeḥ, 20 n rrhun s umata. 13 n lexsarat: 2W ilaq ad yaweḍ 17, ihi 9 n rrbeḥ, 22 n rrhun.
Amyizwer n rrbeḥ d lexsarat ur ibeddel ara amkan anda ara yekfu ujerriḍ, u ajerriḍ yekfan yexelleṣ yal tikkelt amatu n ujerriḍ n tazwara, dagi 10 n yiferdisen. D ayagi i yerran anagraw yettban yeddu ɣas texsrem ugar n wayen terbḥem. Ayen ibeddel umyizwer d tiddi n rrhun deg ubrid: azrar aɣezfan n lexsarat yezmer ad ten-yessali nnig ugerrujidrimenAgerrujAkk idrimen yettwaǧǧan i wurar. Asefrek n ugerruj d tagrut: acḥal seg-s ara tesrem i yal rrehn d yal taɣimit.Ɣer akk →-nwen neɣ talast n ṭṭablaṭṭablaTalast n ṭṭablaRrehn adday d rrehn afellay i yettwasirgen. Talast tafellayt d ayen i yeḥebsen inagrawen n usnegmu.Ɣer akk → qbel ad d-awḍen rrbeḥ (Epstein, 2013).
Taḍsa i usgunfu
Ajerriḍ yettwaṣfa s waṭas n tikkal. Aṭas mačči d yal tikkelt.
Iɣbula
- RouletteDoc. Aglam n tstratijit d yimedyaten.
- Roulette77. Aglam n tstratijit d yimedyaten.
- Roulette77. Aglam n Labouchere amettiw.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.
- Wykes, A. The Complete Illustrated Guide to Gambling.
- Leigh, N. Thirteen Against the Bank.
- Goldman, N. Great Gambling Scams.