Tuzzyiwin timanayin n rulit
Yal tuzzya tebda seg ulac.
Agmuḍ n yiwet n tuzzya ur yettḥaz ara tin d-iteddun. Yal leḥsab deg usmel-a yebna ɣef tidet-a.
D acu i d tamanit
p(azeggaɣrrehnAzeggaɣRrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi ɣef 18 n wuṭṭunen izeggaɣen. S tefransist: rouge.Ɣer akk → deg tuzzya 2 | azeggaɣ deg tuzzya 1) = p(azeggaɣ) = 18/37. Tawtilt ɣef umazray ur tbeddel acemma. Uṭṭunen yeḥmanlexrafaUṭṭun yeḥmanUṭṭun i d-yeffɣen ugar n wayen yettwaṛǧan melmi kan. Ɣef uḍebsi imsawi ur d-yettbeggin acemma.Ɣer akk →, uṭṭunen isemmaḍenlexrafaUṭṭun asemmaḍUṭṭun ur d-nettwaẓra ara aṭas n tuzzyiwin. Ɣef uḍebsi imsawi ur d-yettak ula d yiwet n telɣut ɣef tuzzyiwin ara d-yasen.Ɣer akk → d yiniten i «yewwḍen wakud-nsen» d aglam n wayen yezrin, mačči d tifin uqbel n wayen ara d-yasen, yerna yal yiwen yebna ɣef wawal ur nelli d tidet belli tuzzyiwin n rulit mačči d timanayin. S wudem unṣib, taprubabilittusnaktTaprubabilitAzal n yiwen ugmuḍ ad d-yeḍru, seg 0 ɣer 1 neɣ seg 0% ɣer 100%. Yiwen wuṭṭun: 1/37 = 2,70%.Ɣer akk → tamsdukelt n yal azrar n yigmaḍ d asgut n tiprubabiliyin n yal tuzzya, d sebba kan i yettwasirgen walugen n usgut deg usebter n taprubabilit.
Ayɣer «tuzzyiwin n rulit mačči d timanayin» d tuccḍa deg tfizikt
TakurtibenkanTakurtTakurt tamecṭuḥt i yettwaḍeqqren deg ubrid mgal aqerru yettezzin. Tikurin n tura d ivorine neɣ d Teflon, 18–21 mm.Ɣer akk → tettwanṭeḍ s ufus s tazrit yettbeddilen s kra n yiḥricen n lmitru deg tsint; tezzi deg ubrid anda amsiwer yettbeddil d uɣebbar d tiɣmi; tewwet yiwen seg tam n yimsenfalenibenkanAmsenfalYiwen seg yiɣunab n wuzzal ɣef tama yeknan i yesseḍrayen takurt mi ara teɣli. Daɣen: canoe, diamond, pin.Ɣer akk → s tiɣmert yettwasbedden s wayagi akk; tettneggiz ɣef leḥyuḍ n texxaminibenkanLḥiḍ n taxxamtLḥiḍ n wuzzal gar snat n texxamin ɣef uḍebsi.Ɣer akk → anda ayen xeddmen i tkurt s 1 m/s d axerwed s unamek atiknikan. Ulac ayen yeqqimen seg ugmuḍ yezrin deg yiwen seg yimuttiyen-a. Aqerru yettezzin (rotor)ibenkanAqerru yettezzin (rotor)Aḥric n uḍebsi yettezzin i yeṭṭfen tixxamin.Ɣer akk → d yiwen uqerru, d amkan kan anda tezmer ad teffer tuqqna, yerna d asteqsi n umyal n uḍebsi wagi.
Ayen d-yettḍafaren
Yal anagraw n rrhun d tasɣent n yigmaḍ yezrin. Ma yella igmaḍ yezrin ur sɛin ula d tilɣa ɣef tuzzya d-iteddun, ulac tasɣent am tagi ara yesselhun azal yettwaṛǧantusnaktAzal yettwaṛǧanAlemmas n ugmuḍ n yal rrehn deg uɣawas aɣezfan. −1/37 n rrehn i yal rrehn amagnu awrupi.Ɣer akk → n rrehn d-iteddun. D wagi i d lqem unṣib n ubeggen mgal inagrawen, d ayɣer isebtar n tistratijiyin zemren ad ttwarun uqbel i yinagrawen ur d-nennulfa ara: abeggen ur yeqqin ara ɣer ulugen.
Melmi ara terrẓ
Kan ma yella aḍebsi yemyal s tfizikt neɣ aḍeqqer n ukrupi yezmer ad yettwaẓer uqbel. D isental n Tanarit wigi. Ula dinna, tuqqna tettili ɣer tfizikt, mačči ɣer yigmaḍ yezrin: taxxamtibenkanTaxxamtYiwet seg 37 n texxamin s wuṭṭunen ɣef uqerru yettezzin. Daɣen: slot, cup.Ɣer akk → s umyal tesɛa taprubabilit meqqren deg yal tuzzya, mačči deffir mi tella «tesmeḍ». Isefka n tuzzyiwin yezrin ad ilin d abeggen ɣef uḍebsi, d ayen yemgaraden ɣef talɣa deg yigmaḍ.
Tamanit d tawtilt
Asgut n tiprubabiliyin yettwasireg kan ma yella yineḍruyen d imanayen, yerna aḍebsi n rulit yerbeḥ azref-a s tfizikt. Deg yimukan nniḍen ilaq ad yettwasenqed. Deg 1999 Sally Clark, tanemḥamit Taglizit, tettwaḥkem ɣef tmenɣiwt n sin n warraw-is imeẓyanen. Amejjay n warrac yenna-as i lǧuri belli taprubabilit n snat n tmettanin n warrac deg wusu deg twacult am tin-is d 1 seg 73 n yimelyunen, amḍan i d-yufa s usgut n 1 seg 8 543, taprubabilit n yiwet, deg yiman-is. Asgut-a yettḥesbu snat n tmettanin am snat n tuzzyiwin n uḍebsi. Maca atmaten bḍan ijinen d uxxam, ihi deffir yiwet n tmettant n ugrud deg wusu, tis snat tesɛa taprubabilit meqqren aṭas ugar n tamezwarut. Royal Statistical Society tenna-t-id s taɣect deg 2001, aḥkam ɣef Clark yettwakkes deg tuɣalin tis snat deg 2003, deffir mi d-banen tbeggunin n ṭṭebb ur d-yettwaskanen ara. Hunacek (2025) yesseqdac taluft-a akken ad yesselmed alugen i ɣef yebna usebter-a: sgutet kan ayen yellan d amanay.
Tamanit d ṭṭwabel RNG
Ṭṭwabel n useɣzan ttawint-d yal agmuḍ seg umsirew n wuṭṭunen igacuranen yettwaselkan, yettwaɛerḍen akken iwata ɣef taɣara-a: tamanit yal yiwen deffir wayeḍ deg yimelyunen n tuffɣiwin. Aḍebsi yettembiwilen d acebbeḥ kan. Ṭṭabla RNG ara d-yesbegnen tuqqna ad tecceḍ deg uselken, ayen yuɛren ugar n yal akayad i yezmer ad yexdem umurar.
Isteqsiyen
Mačči ɣer texxamt. Ahat, s tuɣalin yettɛawaden aṭas, ɣer tegzemtaḍebsiTagzemtAḥric n texxamin yemmeḍfaren ɣef uḍebsi, mačči d tagrumma ɣef tfelwit.Ɣer akk → s waṭas ugar n zzher; walit tizmamin n yikrupiyen deg Tanarit. Istudyuten ttbeddilen aḍeqqer akken ad t-gdlen.
I tesleḍt n umyal deg yigiman n tuzzyiwin, deg taẓrit. I tuzzya d-iteddun, ala.
Urar s tusnakt
Ɛerḍet-tent s yiman-nwen qbel. Yal tifrat tettwaffer; ldit-tt mi ara tilim twejdem.
Rrehn yettwasersen qbel snat n tuzzyiwin ixelleṣ lexlaṣ imsawi ma yella wuṭṭun wis sin yugar amezwaru. Amsawi yexser, u 0 yettwaḥseb d uṭṭun amecṭuḥ akk. Acḥal i yetteklif ɣef uḍebsi awrupi?
Sken-d tifrat
Tiririt 2,70% s tidet, am uzeggaɣrrehnAzeggaɣRrehn s lexlaṣ imsawi ɣef 18 n wuṭṭunen izeggaɣen. S tefransist: rouge.Ɣer akk →.
Snat-nni n tuzzyiwin d timanayin, ihi uṭṭun wis sin yezmer ad yugar amezwaru akken yezmer ad yili ddaw-s. Tagnit nniḍen kan d amsawi, yiwen wuṭṭun snat n tikkal, s tprubabilittusnaktTaprubabilitAzal n yiwen ugmuḍ ad d-yeḍru, seg 0 ɣer 1 neɣ seg 0% ɣer 100%. Yiwen wuṭṭun: 1/37 = 2,70%.Ɣer akk → n 1/37.
Ihi rrehn yerbeḥ s tprubabilit n (1 − 1/37)/2 = 18/37, s tidet taprubabilit n uzeggaɣ, u yetteklif 2,70%-nni yiwen.
Lemmer tzemrem ad t-tsersem deffir ma twalam uṭṭun amezwaru, yili d tikci: deffir 0 yerbeḥ 36 n tikkal deg 37. D ayagi i yerran rrehn am wa ilaq ad yemdel qbel tuzzya tamezwarut.
Taḍsa i usgunfu
Yal tuzzya tebda seg ulac. Yal leḥsab da yeqqen ɣer waya.
Iɣbula
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Small, M. & Tse, C. K. “Predicting the outcome of roulette.”
- Hunacek, M. Quantitative Literacy Through Games and Gambling.
- Royal Statistical Society. “Statement regarding statistical issues in the Sally Clark case.”